British Pound resumes rally as Retail Sales jump

Kenny Fisher MarketPulse

The British pound has posted gains on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3484, up 0.49% on the day. The pound has gained 1.5% this week and is trading at levels not seen since Feb. 2022.

UK Retail Sales surge 5% in April

The markets were expecting a banner reading from April retail sales but the actual numbers crushed the forecast. Annual retail sales surged 5%, up from a downwardly revised 1.9% and above the market estimate of 4.5%. This marked the fastest pace of growth since Feb. 2022.

Monthly, retail sales climbed 1.2%, up from a downwardly revised 0.3% in March and blowing past the market estimate of 0.2%. The surge was driven by sharp gains in food store sales and department stores, as favorable weather brought out consumers.

The UK economy has been struggling and strong consumer spending has been a bright spot. Monthly retail sales have now increased for four straight months, which last occurred in 2020.

The UK consumer spending more and is showing more optimism. The GfK consumer confidence index for May improved to -20 from -23 and beat the market estimate of -22. The improvement is likely a result of the de-escalation in global trade tensions as well as the Bank of England rate cut in early May.

The impressive retail sales report, together with higher-than-expected inflation in April will raise expectations for the BoE to hold rates at its next meeting on June 18.

There are no key US releases today but we'll hear from three FOMC members. There has been plenty of Fedspeak this week, with a message that the US tariffs will take a toll on the US economy, even with the temporary deal with China, and that the Fed favors a wait-and-see stance before further rate cuts.

GBP/USD technical

GBP/USD has broken above several resistance lines and is putting pressure in resistance at 1.3493.
There is support at 1.3393 and 1.3367.

GBP/USD 1-Day Chart, May 25, 2025

Author

Kenny Fisher

MarketPulse

A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities.

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