Mike “Mish” Shedlock's
Sitka Pacific Capital Management,Llc
Negotiation Tactics
The ultimate deadline is the end of the year. Is there still time for a deal of any kind?
Eurointelligence comments Maybe They are Not Negotiating After All.
Philippe Lamberts MEP shared an interesting snippet of information about the state of the Brexit negotiations. Don't take it for granted that we are in a final stretch. While it appears that negotiations are going on, this is pure illusion. The British are not negotiating, he said. This corroborates our take last week. Lamberts confirmed that these talks did not just end a day early. They actually broke down.
Lamberts was a member of the Brexit steering group in the European Parliament, which accompanied the first part of the Brexit negotiations. We think he may have first-hand knowledge of the state of the current negotiations. In an interview, he said the negotiations were only for show, to give the appearance that something is happening when it is not. And he said the UK government was not really interested in a deal.
We agree with Lamberts that the UK is not being serious. But we also think that the EU wasted five months with a proposal that was objectively unreasonable, like the ECJ power grab. The EU has systematically misjudged UK politics, and is only now slowly coming to terms with Brexit. Both sides have strong incentives to make a deal. But we believe that both sides really need to hear the ticking clock. They are not hearing it now, but we believe they will hear the ticks more clearly by September.
EU Overplays Its Hand
The EU demanded the UK bow down to the European Court of Justice, give up fishing rights for nothing, and agree to some freedom of movement clauses that triggered Brexit in the first place.
Once again, the EU demanded too much from the UK and once again Boris Johnson politely told the EU where to go.
Boris Johnson politely said go to hell.
I believe a minimal deal is in the best interests of the UK and the EU. Details can come later as there is no time for details now.
Details aside, it is not the EU's place to insist on the piss poor deal they tried to cram down Theresa May's throat.
Johnson has made it clear that will not fly.
This material is based upon information that Sitka Pacific Capital Management considers reliable and endeavors to keep current, Sitka Pacific Capital Management does not assure that this material is accurate, current or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.
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