Despite an unending series of Parliamentary setbacks for Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s attempt to clinch the UK exit from the European Union, Sterling has retained almost all of its gains of the past ten days, suggesting that his Brexit deal will eventually be approved.
The pound was trading at 1.2970 (3:02 EDT in New York) having reached 1.3013 earlier in the session its highest since May13th. Starting from its close on October 9th at 1.2205 the British currency has risen 6.3% against the dollar.
Government ministers have become increasingly confident that they have the 318 votes to pass the Brexit agreement which won EU approval last week. Various media counts of the successful margin range from one to five.
The Conservatives have been prevented from a specific vote on the Brexit agreement by a number of secondary bills and by rulings from the Speaker of Parliament John Bercow denying permission to bring the bill to the floor.
Mr. Bercow rejected a government try for debate and vote on Monday. Two potential amendments on a customs union for the entire UK and a second nationwide referendum on departure are set for consideration.
Were the first to pass the government might accept the amendment to its Brexit bill, pass the deal and go to a general election. If the Tories won a majority Mr. Johnson could revoke the customs union and proceed with the already passed Brexit bill.
Were the referendum amendment to pass Mr. Johnson could scrap the Brexit bill and proceeded to a general election.
Polls suggest that Mr. Johnson and the Conservatives would win an election against the Jeremy Corbyn led Labor and the Liberal Democrats.
If there is a general election before or immediately after Parliament passes the Brexit bill it would be fought almost exclusively over the departure from the EU.
Labour has come out in favor a second exit referendum, though a number of its members represent constituencies that voted in favor of departure in the original June 2016 referendum and are set to join the government when the bill reaches the floor.
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