S&P 500 did another daily reversal, but the bears haven‘t yet won. The risk-on in stocks hasn‘t been broken as value demonstrates, but bonds are getting the macro picture right, as they often do – the Fed is to remain hawkish as Daly reaffirmed, which would help keep real assets in check while that lasts. Precious metals proved their sensitivity to sharp increases in yields – this recognition of the tightening reality played out on the long end of the curve, not affecting the continued rate raising expectations for Sep FOMC really (regardless of the inconsistent market interpretations of both CPI and PPI).

S&P 500 and Nasdaq outlook

SPX

Even if S&P 500 pushes higher today on better-than-expected consumer sentiment data (relief at the pump), the bears are likely to break below the 4,212 support next week (if not later today already).

Credit markets

HYG

HYG is likely to retrace a part of yesterday‘s reversal – a proper reversal as the volume confirms while quality debt instruments would play a lesser role in moving stocks today. Clearly, bonds aren‘t bullish here, and the deterioration is to continue over the weeks ahead.

Bitcoin and Ethereum

BTCUSD

Similarly in cryptos, no game-changer happened, and the rally is looking tired.

All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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