Summary

Against a slew of souring economic data, the jobs market generally, and nonfarm payrolls in particular, has been a bright spot for the economy.

While the sample size of the establishment survey used to derive nonfarm payrolls estimate is quite large, capturing roughly one-third of establishments, it is nonetheless a sample. Therefore, the Bureau of Labor Statistics routinely benchmarks the level of nonfarm payrolls to more comprehensive measures of employment from employer tax records.

The January jobs report will include revised measures of nonfarm payrolls as part of the annual benchmarking process. Preliminary estimates suggest the level of payrolls in March 2022 will be revised higher by 462,000, or 0.3%.

The benchmarking process, however, will shed little light about how hiring has fared since last March when conditions have grown more challenging with the Fed's aggressive efforts to tamp down inflation. Updated seasonal factors may paint a slightly different picture of the pace of hiring the past few months relative to mid-2022, but it will not be until next year's benchmarking process that we'll see the fuller picture of how nonfarm payrolls have fared under the rapidly changed environment of the past 10 months.

The January jobs report will also include new population controls to the household survey data. As is customary (and unlike the establishment survey), the historical data will not be revised. This can lead to ineffectual month-to-month comparisons of household employment, unemployment and labor force levels. Ratios like the unemployment rate or labor force participation rate should be less affected, but the changes still open the door to some surprising monthly moves.

Will benchmark revisions darken the rosy payroll picture?

A slew of data has pointed to the economy souring of late. It is no longer merely the housing market in retreat, but manufacturing production and consumer spending are now on the back foot. The Leading Economic Index has declined for 10 consecutive months, and with momentum slowing sharply late in Q4, GDP in the first quarter of this year may very well be negative.

Against the worsening backdrop, the most robust defense against an imminent recession (or rebuttal that the U.S. economy was already in one in the first half of 2022) has been a strong rate of job growth. Nonfarm payrolls, the most ubiquitous measure of employment, expanded by an average of 375,000 per month in 2022. Although hiring slowed to a two-year low in December, payrolls increased by 223,000, or 40,000 more than the 2010-2019 average. We expect the gradual slowdown in payrolls to continue in the near term and look for a 190,000 gain in January's payroll report on Friday. But what if the recent impressive picture of hiring is a mirage?

fxsoriginal

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Economics

fxsoriginal

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Economics

Establishment survey: Timely yet imperfect

Nonfarm payroll estimates are based on a survey of establishments, rather than the entire population of firms. The large sample size—670,000 establishments—captures roughly one-third of all nonfarm jobs and makes it generally preferable to the household survey’s measure of employment, which only covers 60,000 households and therefore has a larger margin of error.

Yet as a survey, it has a number of issues with which to contend. Among them is non-response, which reduces the reliability of a survey’s estimate. The average response rate for the first read on nonfarm payrolls fell to a 17-year low in 2022 (Figure 2). However, the response rate by the third release has trended higher since the early days of COVID and are now not wildly far off from the prevailing rate of the 2010s, suggesting non-response has not been a major issue for 2022's total hiring picture.

Surveying the wrong mix of establishments (sampling error) is another potential issue, as is the inability to capture jobs created by new firms (non-sampling error). To reduce non-sampling error, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) forecasts the number of net jobs being created by new businesses (firm "births") not yet captured in the sample. This "birth-death" adjustment scales employment growth up or down depending on the net rate of firm formation. Over the past year, firm formation has been quite strong, helping to lift the forecasted birth-death factor to the monthly level of payrolls to a historically high level.

fxsoriginal

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Economics

fxsoriginal

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Economics

To improve the reliability of payroll survey estimates, each year the BLS benchmarks nonfarm payrolls to more comprehensive measures of employment. The January employment report released on Friday, February 3 will include the annual benchmark revisions, which will adjust the March 2022 level of payrolls with employment counts based on employer tax records for the same period. Preliminary estimates suggest the total level of nonfarm employment was 462,000 higher in March 2022 than currently reported (Figure 4). Put differently, the preliminary benchmark estimates point to the monthly pace of nonfarm job growth being on average 39,000 stronger from April 2021 to March 2022. Over the past 11 years, the absolute change from the benchmark adjustment to the level of nonfarm payrolls has averaged 0.15%, so the 0.3% projected increase would be on the larger side, but not unusually so.

Benchmark revisions already dated

The benchmark revision, however, will have little to say about how hiring has fared in subsequent months. Since March, the operating environment for businesses has become more challenging. With the Fed aggressively tightening policy, inflation rising to a 41-year high and ongoing worker shortages, some skepticism has surfaced that nonfarm payrolls have overstated the true pace of hiring in recent months.

Benchmark revisions showed that when economic conditions began to deteriorate heading into the Great Recession, employment was not as strong as nonfarm payrolls indicated at the time (Figure 4). Concerns that actual hiring may similarly be weaker today than indicated by current nonfarm payrolls have also been fueled by a recent report by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The analysis estimated that in Q2-2022 (beyond the period in which the upcoming annual payroll benchmarks will cover), a mere 10,500 jobs were added compared to the 1.1 million reported by the current payroll figures.

The Philadelphia Fed’s estimates, however, have only been reported for a few quarters now and are based on less complete data than the BLS uses. The authors suggest some caution in taking them as gospel of future national revisions, noting that it would take large revisions over three quarters to suggest the national revisions would be revised even slightly in the same direction of the state revisions. The research notes “we need to track this work over more years to learn whether our early benchmarks regularly predict the direction of data revisions to the CES estimates of national data.” Given the lagged incorporation of revisions, it will not be until next year's benchmarking process we see the fuller picture of how nonfarm payrolls have fared under the rapidly changing environment of the past 10 months.

Other changes to the establishment and household survey

To the extent the January Employment Situation's adjustments to the establishment survey do end up altering the recent picture of hiring, it would be more likely to come from the updated seasonal factors. Changes to seasonal factors for the past five years could potentially show a steadier pace of job growth in recent months, or alternatively that hiring has lost momentum more quickly.

Not to be left out, the household survey will use new population controls to reflect the latest population estimates from the Census Bureau. Unlike the establishment survey, however, historical data are not revised. This can lead to ineffectual month-to-month comparisons of household employment, unemployment and labor force levels. Monthly comparisons of ratios such as the unemployment rate or labor force participation should be less fraught as both the numerator and denominator are subject to the adjustments, but the lack of revisions to prior data nonetheless ushers in the potential for some surprising monthly moves.

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Recently, the stock market has experienced high levels of volatility. If you are thinking about participating in fast moving markets, please take the time to read the information below. Wells Fargo Investments, LLC will not be restricting trading on fast moving securities, but you should understand that there can be significant additional risks to trading in a fast market. We've tried to outline the issues so you can better understand the potential risks. If you're unsure about the risks of a fast market and how they may affect a particular trade you've considering, you may want to place your trade through a phone agent at 1-800-TRADERS. The agent can explain the difference between market and limit orders and answer any questions you may have about trading in volatile markets. 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A real-time quote for a fast moving stock may be more indicative of what has already occurred in the market rather than the price you will receive. Your Execution Price and Orders Ahead In a fast market, orders are submitted to market makers and specialists at such a rapid pace, that a backlog builds up which can create significant delays. Market makers may execute orders manually or reduce size guarantees during periods of volatility. When you place a market order, your order is executed on a first-come first-serve basis. This means if there are orders ahead of yours, those orders will be executed first. The execution of orders ahead of yours can significantly affect your execution price. Your submitted market order cannot be changed or cancelled once the stock begins trading. Initial Public Offerings may be Volatile IPOs for some internet, e-commerce and high tech issues may be particularly volatile as they begin to trade in the secondary market. 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It is possible that losses may be suffered due to difficulty in accessing accounts due to high internet traffic or extended wait times to speak to a telephone agent. Freeriding is Prohibited Freeriding is when you buy a security low and sell it high, during the same trading day, but use the proceeds of its sale to pay for the original purchase of the security. There is no prohibition against day trading, however you must avoid freeriding. To avoid freeriding, the funds for the original purchase of the security must come from a source other than the sale of the security. Freeriding violates Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board concerning the extension of credit by the broker-dealer (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) to its customers. The penalty requires that the customer's account be frozen for 90 days. Stop and Stop Limit Orders A stop is an order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the stop price chosen. You are guaranteed to get an execution. For example, you place an order to buy at a stop of $50 which is above the current price of $45. If the price of the stock moves to or above the $50 stop price, the order becomes a market order and will execute at the current market price. Your trade will be executed above, below or at the $50 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A "sell stop" is very similar. You own a stock with a current market price of $70 a share. You place a sell stop at $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a market order and your trade will be executed above, below or at the $67 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A stop limit has two major differences from a stop order. With a stop limit, you are not guaranteed to get an execution. If you do get an execution on your trade, you are guaranteed to get your limit price or better. For example, you place an order to sell stock you own at a stop limit of $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a limit order and your trade will only be executed at $67 or better. Glossary All or None (AON) A stipulation of a buy or sell order which instructs the broker to either fill the whole order or don't fill it at all; but in the latter case, don't cancel it, as the broker would if the order were filled or killed. Day Order A buy or sell order that automatically expires if it is not executed during that trading session. Fill or Kill An order placed that must immediately be filled in its entirety or, if this is not possible, totally canceled. Good Til Canceled (GTC) An order to buy or sell which remains in effect until it is either executed or canceled (WellsTrade® accounts have set a limit of 60 days, after which we will automatically cancel the order). Immediate or Cancel An order condition that requires all or part of an order to be executed immediately. The part of the order that cannot be executed immediately is canceled. Limit Order An order to buy or sell a stated quantity of a security at a specified price or at a better price (higher for sales or lower for purchases). Maintenance Call A call from a broker demanding the deposit of cash or marginable securities to satisfy Regulation T requirements and/or the House Maintenance Requirement. This may happen when the customer's margin account balance falls below the minimum requirements due to market fluctuations or other activity. Margin Requirement Minimum amount that a client must deposit in the form of cash or eligible securities in a margin account as spelled out in Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board. Reg. T requires a minimum of $2,000 or 50% of the purchase price of eligible securities bought on margin or 50% of the proceeds of short sales. Market Makers NASD member firms that buy and sell NASDAQ securities, at prices they display in NASDAQ, for their own account. There are currently over 500 firms that act as NASDAQ Market Makers. One of the major differences between the NASDAQ Stock Market and other major markets in the U.S. is NASDAQ's structure of competing Market Makers. Each Market Maker competes for customer order flow by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares. Once an order is received, the Market Maker will immediately purchase for or sell from its own inventory, or seek the other side of the trade until it is executed, often in a matter of seconds. Market Order An order to buy or sell a stated amount of a security at the best price available at the time the order is received in the trading marketplace. Specialists Specialist firms are those securities firms which hold seats on national securities exchanges and are charged with maintaining orderly markets in the securities in which they have exclusive franchises. They buy securities from investors who want to sell and sell when investors want to buy. Stop An order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the designated stop price. Buy stops are entered above the current ask price. If the price moves to or above the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. This price may be higher or lower than the stop price. Sell stops are entered below the current market price. If the price moves to or below the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. Stop Limit An order that becomes a limit order once the security trades at the designated stop price. A stop limit order instructs a broker to buy or sell at a specific price or better, but only after a given stop price has been reached or passed. It is a combination of a stop order and a limit order. These articles are for information and education purposes only. You will need to evaluate the merits and risks associated with relying on any information provided. Although this article may provide information relating to approaches to investing or types of securities and investments you might buy or sell, Wells Fargo and its affiliates are not providing investment recommendations, advice, or endorsements. Data have been obtained from what are considered to be reliable sources; however, their accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Wells Fargo makes no warranties and bears no liability for your use of this information. The information made available to you is not intended, and should not be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice, or a legal opinion.

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