Australian confidence data slips, Aussie rally continues

Kenny Fisher MarketPulse

The Australian dollar continues to propel higher. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6618, up 0.40% on the day. The Aussie has shot up 1.5% since Thursday and is trading at six-week highs.

Australian consumer, business confidence slide

Australia's consumer and business confidence have taken a hit, pointing to pessimism over the economic outlook. The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index fell 3.1% m/m in September, after a strong 5.7% gain in August. Westpac said that the index is back in "cautiously pessimistic" territory.

Consumers remain uneasy over high interest rates, as the Reserve Bank has been slow to lower rates. The Westpac survey found that consumers are more concerned about unemployment and less likely to purchase a major household item.

The NAB Business Confidence Index also headed lower, falling in August to 4 points, down from 8 in July. This marked a three-month low. Still, business conditions showed improvement and forward orders moved higher.

Will the RBA lower rates?

The Reserve Bank of Australia is coming off a quarter-point rate cut and meets next on September 30. The money markets don't expect a cut in September, as GDP rose in Q2 to 1.8% from 1.4% and core inflation jumped to 2.7% in July, up from 2.1%. A stronger economy and higher inflation will make it more difficult for the RBA to lower rates.

We could see a rate cut in November and further easing early in the new year. Much will depend on the direction of inflation, the strength of the labor market, and the health of the Chinese economy.

In the US, the Federal Reserve is poised to deliver a rate hike next week for the first time since December 2024. The weak nonfarm payrolls report has raised the likelihood of a half-point cut to 12%, with a quarter-point cut priced in at 88%, according to CME's FedWatch.

AUD/USD technical

AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6612. Next, there is resistance at 0.6632.
0.6579 and 0.6559 are providing support.

Author

Kenny Fisher

MarketPulse

A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities.

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