Market is slow ahead of Powell speech today, when we will get more decisions about their policy rates. For now, the risk-on is still on the table after China announced that they will allow close contacts of Covid cases to quarantine at home. They also said that they will strengthen vaccinations which sounds positive. AUD CPI data came lower y/y, at 6.9% from 7.6% expected. Inflation is coming down, which means that RBA can be less hawkish but AUDUSD pair was still able to hold the support within a triangle. We see a-b-c-d-e subwaves in wave 4 so be aware of a break higher into wave 5. Rise above 0.68 can call 0.69. A drop below 0.6640 can cause a deeper pullback to 0.6550.

Chart


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