The Aud, fell to 0.7644 in early Europe but then bounced as the US$ weakened and moved sharply higher in the US session, extending gains to 0.7797 before drifting off to 0.7780 at the end of the day, leaving the outlook unchanged. The Australian March jobs data is the focus today, with both the employment and unemployment rate forecast to improve (exp +25K, 5.4%, PR-65.6%). If so, expect a decent test of 0.7800/10 and higher.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Mixed.
Daily Indicators: Turning higher
Weekly Indicators: Neutral
Preferred Strategy: The Aud looks a little mixed again on Tuesday, with the dailies still looking quite constructive, while the short term momentum indicators look mixed.
If the positive look from the dailies prevails, then we could be in for another run to 0.7795/00 and then back to 0.7800/10, above which could see a run towards 0.7850 and then to 0.7900.
If we head back below minor support 0.7770, stronger bids would arrive at 0.7750/45, with further support seen at 0.7735 and 0.7720, below which could revisit 0.7705/95 (10 April low – 0.7693) although this currently seems unlikely. Further out, the Aud has found a medium term base in the 0.7645/50 range (9 April low – 0.7651), and this needs to be taken out in order to allow further downside progress towards the next major level, at 100 WMA (0.7625). Below this would then move towards the major rising trend support from January 2016, at 0.7590, although that may take a while. Wait for the jobs data to find out.
Economic data highlights will include:
NAB Business Confidence/Conditions – Q1, Australian Unemployment
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