Part 1) introduction
VolatilityMarkets suggests trend-inspired trades that capitalize on market trends.
In the short term AUDNZD has been accelerating higher. In the long term AUDNZD has been decelerating lower. With the long term trend being the stronger of the two, we propose a short trade idea with a one week time horizon.
Part 2) trade idea details
Sell $ 257,825 AUD, or 2.58 lots of AUDNZD, take profit at $ 1.0881 level with 50.0% odds for a $ 1,000 AUD gain, stop out at $ 1.0965 with 50.02% odds for a $ 1,000 AUD loss through 1w time horizon
Part 3) AUDNZD trend analysis
AUDNZD last price was $ 1.092584. The long term trend decelerating lower is stronger than the short term trend accelerating higher. This trade goes short when the price was moving lower and decelerating over the past 19 days.
Part 4) AUDNZD value analysis
Over the past 19 days, the AUDNZD price increased 9 days and decreased 10 days. For every up day, there were 1.11 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 0.1499% The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.285% Over the past 19 Days, the price has decreased by -1.5% percent. Over the past 19 days, the average return per day has been -0.0789% percent.
Part 5) AUDNZD worst/best case scenario analysis
Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for AUDNZD, is $ 1.079916 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 1.104666 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade. We are 50% confident that $ 1.0965 could trade and that $ 1.0881 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.
Key Takeaways:
-
Price today $ 1.092584.
-
Over the past 19 days, the AUDNZD price increased 9 days and decreased 10 Days.
-
For every up day, there were 1.11 down days.
-
The average return on days where the price increased is 0.1499%.
-
The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.285%.
-
Over the past 19 Days, the price has decreased by -1.5% percent.
-
Over the past 19 days, the average return per day has been -0.0789% percent.
-
Over the past 19 days, The price has on average been decelerating: -0.2033 pips per day lower.
-
Over the last session, the price increased by 24.42 pips.
-
Over the last session, the price increased by 0.2235 %.
-
Over the last session, the price accelerated by 21.96 pips.
Volatility Markets provides trend following trade ideas for momentum traders. The Volatility Markets Newswire measures the direction and acceleration of a security and then structures a trade idea to capitalize on the trend. While trends have been shown to exist in markets over the past 100 years, they are no guarantee of future asset prices. You should take these ideas lightly and at your own risk.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.