Daily currency update
The Australian dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback trading at 0.7085 at the time of writing. The AUD/USD pair is seen in a narrow trading band on Friday consolidating its recent strong gains to the highest level since June 2022 with a 2% gain, supported by the stronger CPI print mid-week driving higher Australia-global rate spreads. Further upside could lift AUD/USD to the 0.7170 zone in the short-term horizon. Should the Aussie dollar break above January 26 high at 0.7142, we could see a breakout that will drive the major toward the round-level resistance of 0.7200. A breach of the latter will expose the asset for more upside toward June 3 high at 0.7283. Looking ahead this week and on Tuesday we will see the release of monthly Retail Sales figures. This is the earliest look at vital consumer spending data and the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. On Wednesday we will see the release of the AIG Manufacturing Index a survey of about 200 manufacturers that asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. On Thursday all eyes will be on the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ monthly Building Approvals and the National Australia Bank (NAB) Quarterly Business Confidence survey.
Key movers
On Friday in the United States Core PCE Price Index came out at 0.3% MoM, slightly above 0.2% estimates and 0.2% previous MoM, and at 4.4% YoY from 4.7% previously. The slight gain in core inflation gave some marginal support to the US Dollar as it reduces the chances the Federal Reserve will turn dovish later in the year, but so far the currency has failed to follow through its initial lift to the upside. Markets still expect less aggressive policy tightening by the Federal Reserve, and are pricing in a smaller 25 bps Fed rate hike move in February, which keeps a lid on any meaningful upside for the Greenback. Friday’s US economic calendar also featured the release of Pending Home Sales data and the revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, both of which came in above estimates, with Home Sales registering an unexpected 2.5% rise in December versus the -0.9% expected. The focus now shifts to the outcome of a two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting, scheduled to be announced next Wednesday. Heading into the key event risk, the major is more likely to prolong its consolidative price move. The US S&P500 was up 0.25% on Friday, taking its weekly gain to 2.5% while the Nasdaq index rose just under 1% for a weekly gain of 4.3%, the latter supported by some support for tech stocks and Tesla’s 33% gain over the week, with the company delivering on an anticipated strong result.
Expected ranges
- AUD/USD: 0.7000 – 0.7200 ▼
- AUD/EUR: 0.6450 – 0.6650 ▼
- GBP/AUD: 1.7250 – 1.7450 ▲
- AUD/NZD: 1.0800 – 1.1000 ▲
- AUD/CAD: 0.9350 – 0.9550 ▲
IMPORTANT: This information has been prepared for distribution over the internet and without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any particular person. Oz Forex Foreign Exchange makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in this website, emails or its related websites. Please read our Product Disclosure Statement and our Financial Services Guide.
Regulated in Australia by ASIC (AFS Licence number 226 484)
© 2010 Copyright Oz Forex Foreign Exchange Pty Ltd ABN 65 092-375-703
OzForex Foreign Exchange Services
Member of FOS (Financial Ombudsman Service)
Full Member of AFMA (Australian Financial Markets Association)
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD drops to multi-month lows below 1.0600 as USD rallies

EUR/USD came under renewed bearish pressure and dropped to its lowest level since March below 1.0600 on Monday. While ECB President Lagarde's cautious comments on the policy outlook forces the Euro to stay on the back foot, the USD benefits from risk aversion and further weighs on the pair.
GBP/USD tests 1.2200 as mood sours

Following a short-lasting recovery attempt in the European session, GBP/USD turned south and touched its weakest level in six months near 1.2200. Following a bearish opening in Wall Street, the US Dollar continues to gather strength and causes the pair to stretch lower.
Gold drops below $1,920 as US yields rally

After climbing toward $1,930 in the European session on Monday, Gold price reversed its direction and turned negative on the day below $1,920. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield is up more than 2% on Monday above 4.5%, weighing heavily on XAU/USD.
Top 5 cryptocurrencies in the buy zone ARB, ADA, PEPE, SHIB, COMP: Santiment analysts

Bitcoin price tumbled to $26,110, early on Monday, traders are likely to shift their attention to altcoins, looking for price gains. On-chain intelligence tracker Santiment, developed an “Asset Activity Matrix,” a tool that compares over 180 altcoins, to identify assets with high and low activity.
S&P 500 Forecast: Worries abound after index has worst week since March

The S&P 500 index lost 2.93% last week as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) September 20 policy meeting spooked investors with the central bank’s lack of interest in cutting interest rates anytime soon.