AUD/USD outlook: Hits new 2024 low ahead of widely expected Fed's hawkish cut

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

AUD/USD

AUD/USD hit new 2024 low and trading near the lowest since Oct 2023 on Thursday, after strong bearish signal was generated on Tuesday’s close below former annual low (0.6348, Aug 5 spike low).

Aussie remains pressured from slower than expected growth of Chinese economy and falling commodity prices, with expectations for Fed’s hawkish cut today to add to negative outlook.

The US central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on today’s policy meeting, but markets anticipate that the Fed will significantly downgrade its projections for 2025 (probably to two rate cuts from initially planed four), due to elevated inflation and quite strong economy.

Also, signals that Trump’s administration will fully focus on boosting the US economy, require additional caution, as faster economic growth would fuel inflation and force the central bank to continue monitoring the situation and keep adjusting its policy view.

The pair is on track to register a sustained break of 0.6348 pivot that would open way for attack at 2023 low (0.6270) and probably unmask 2022 low (0.6170) on stronger bearish acceleration.

Firmly bearish daily studies (negative momentum is strengthening, MA’s in full bearish setup with converging 100/200DMA’s on track to form a Death cross) support the notion, with limited upticks on oversold conditions to mark positioning for fresh push higher.

Falling 10DMA (0.6377) should ideally cap, with extended upticks to stall under 0.6430/40 zone (falling 20DMA / former low of Nov 14) to keep larger bears intact.

Res: 0.6348; 0.6377; 0.6440; 0.6465.
Sup: 0.6300; 0.6270; 0.6100; 0.6170.

Interested in AUD/USD technicals? Check out the key levels

1. R3 0.6411
2. R2 0.6395
3. R1 0.6365
PP 0.6348
1. S1 0.6318
2. S2 0.6302
3. S3 0.6272

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

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