|

AUD/USD Outlook: Aussie bounces from key Fibo support but remains biased lower on expectations for RBA rate cut

The pair jumped above 0.6800 handle on Tuesday as the Aussie was bought after slightly less dovish than expected comments from RBA governor Lowe, earlier today.

Bounce occurs after triple-failure at key Fibo support at 0.6766 (61.8% of 0.6687/0.6894) and generates initial signs of reversal, but still long way ahead to confirm scenario, as fresh bulls were so far capped by 20DMA (0.6806) and face strong obstacle at 0.6829 (base of daily cloud / 10DMA).

Lowe highlighted downside risk and said that further rate cuts may be needed, but policymakers need to check  the evidence before making decision.

RBA board meeting is due next week and wide expectations are for 0.25% cut on Oct 1 policy meeting that will mark the third cut this year and bring interest rate to the new record low at 0.75%.

Current recovery might be a positioning for fresh weakness if RBA cuts again.

Firm break of 0.6766 Fibo support would open way towards key supports at 0.6687/77 (3 Sep / 7 Aug lows) and 0.6706 (2019 low, posted on 3 Jan).

Res: 0.6806; 0.6812; 0.6829; 0.6843
Sup: 0.6766; 0.6736; 0.6700; 0.6687

AUDUSD

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

More from Slobodan Drvenica
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD softens below 1.1750 amid ECB rate hold expectations

The EUR/USD pair declines to around 1.1730 during the early European session on Wednesday, pressured by renewed US Dollar demand. Nonetheless, the potential downside for the major pair might be limited amid the growing acceptance that the European Central Bank is done cutting interest rates. 

GBP/USD gains ground above 1.3400 on UK PMI optimism

The GBP/USD pair gains momentum to around 1.3425 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling edges higher against the Greenback on the upbeat UK preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index data. Traders will take more cues from the Fedspeak later on Wednesday. 

Gold advances to near seven-week highs amid US labor market cooling

Gold price extends its upside to near seven-week highs above $4,300 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The precious metal gains momentum as the US labor market remains relatively resilient but shows signs of slowing. The mixed US employment report for November reinforces bets of further rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and weighs on the US Dollar.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple extend correction as bearish momentum builds

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple remain under pressure as the broader market continues its corrective phase into midweek. The weak price action of these top three cryptocurrencies by market capitalization suggests a deeper correction, as momentum indicators are beginning to tilt bearish.

Ukraine-Russia in the spotlight once again

Since the start of the week, gold’s price has moved lower, but has yet to erase the gains made last week. In today’s report we intend to focus on the newest round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, whilst noting the release of the US Employment data later on day and end our report with an update in regards to the tensions brewing in Venezuela.

BNB Price Forecast: BNB slips below $855 as bearish on-chain signals and momentum indicators turn negative

BNB, formerly known as Binance Coin, continues to trade down around $855 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after a slight decline the previous day. Bearish sentiment further strengthens as BNB’s on-chain and derivatives data show rising retail activity.