AUD/USD Forecast: Steady above 0.6400 ahead of Australian jobs data

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6417

• The market remains relatively quiet in the aftermath of the US CPI release.
• Attention now shifts to Australian employment data, with an expected rebound in job numbers.
• The AUD/USD pair continues to hover around the 20-day SMA, staying above 0.6400.
• The AUD/USD pair swung but moved back to the 0.6420 area. It rebounded from near 0.6400, but the upside remained limited, in line with US Dollar dynamics. The US inflation data did not significantly alter the market context. The focus now turns to the Australian employment report.

In July, the Australian economy lost 14,600 jobs. A recovery of around 23,000 jobs is expected in August. The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 3.7%. The numbers will be closely watched and could trigger volatility in the Australian Dollar. Even with an optimistic report, it is unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to resume its hiking cycle.

Prior to the employment report, the Melbourne Institute will release the September Survey of Consumer Inflationary and Wage Expectations. In August, the annual inflation rate was expected to be 4.9%.

The US Dollar posted mixed results on Wednesday following the US August Consumer Price Index, which mostly aligned with expectations, showing a rebound in the headline and a slowdown in the core rate. The numbers support the case for the Federal Reserve to pause at the next week's FOMC meeting. However, the fundamentals indicate a resilient US economy, supporting the Greenback.

Relevant US data is due on Thursday, which could impact market sentiment. This includes more inflation numbers with the Producer Price Index (PPI), employment figures with Jobless Claims, and consumer behavior with Retail Sales.

AUD/USD short-term technical outlook

The AUD/USD pair continues to trade around the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). It briefly approached recent lows but bounced back to the upside. However, the upward move was limited. The main trend is downside, and the key support level stands around 0.6350. A break below this level could lead to further losses.

On the 4-hour chart, the AUD/USD pair rebounded at an uptrend line and moved back above the 20-SMA. It shows a slightly bullish bias, but without strong conviction. Technical indicators provide no clear signals, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 50 and Momentum holding above the midline. A break above 0.6440 would open the door to further gains, targeting 0.6470. On the contrary, if the pair falls below 0.6420, a test of 0.6400 seems likely, and the next level to watch is the dynamic support at 0.6390. A break below this support could expose the monthly lows.

Support levels: 0.6420 0.6400 0.6355

Resistance levels: 0.6440 0.6470 0.6500

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