AUD/USD Forecast: Some positive signs, key resistance at 0.6445
AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6420
- The AUD/USD pair was boosted as the US Dollar corrected lower.
- US economic data showed GDP figures remained unchanged, while there was a modest increase in Jobless Claims.
- A break above 0.6445 would strengthen the Aussie.
On Thursday, AUD/USD experienced a sharp rise, rebounding from monthly lows and climbing above 0.6400. The move was primarily driven by a correction in the US Dollar. Market participants are focused on Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell's speech and the release of the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index.
In Australia, the August Retail Sales data showed a 0.2% increase, slightly below market expectations of 0.3%. The annual rate slowed from 2.1% in July to 1.5% in August, marking the lowest reading since August 2021. Market expectations do not anticipate a rate hike at the upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Bullock's first meeting next week. Additionally, Private Credit data is set to be released in Australia on Friday.
In the US, data revealed that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an unrevised annualized rate of 2.1% during the second quarter. Initial Jobless Claims rose modestly last week to 204,000, which was below the market consensus of 215,000. The data did not generate significant market reactions and indicated that the US economy remains robust. However, the US Dollar continued its correction during the American session. Market participants eagerly await Fed Chair Powell's speech and consumer inflation data, which will be released on Friday.
AUD/USD short-term technical outlook
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The pair is bouncing back after hitting a low of 0.6330 on Wednesday, which was the lowest level in ten months. The Australian Dollar has risen further above 0.6400 and is currently hovering around the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 0.6415. Technical indicators on the daily chart have shown significant improvement following Thursday's rebound.
On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators suggest a bullish bias, with Momentum approaching midlines, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) trending upwards, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) offering bullish signals. The overall outlook remains intact as long as the price remains above 0.6385. A decisive break below that level would increase bearish pressure, potentially exposing the 0.6360 support area.
On the upside, a consolidation above 0.6425 could lead to the next critical area of resistance around 0.6445, which represents a horizontal level and a downtrend line. A break higher would strengthen the Aussie.
Support levels: 0.6395 0.6360 0.6330
Resistance levels: 0.6445 0.6465 0.6500
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Author
Matías Salord
FXStreet
Matías started in financial markets in 2008, after graduating in Economics. He was trained in chart analysis and then became an educator. He also studied Journalism. He started writing analyses for specialized websites before joining FXStreet.
