AUD/USD Forecast: Open road toward 0.6800 as Dollar loses momentum
AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6712
- Aussie holds firm despite weak April trade data as it remains supported by hawkish RBA.
- US Dollar tumbles after release of US Jobless Claims figures.
- The AUD/USD resumes upside after correction, retakes 0.6700.
The AUD/USD posted its highest daily close in almost a month boosted by a weaker US Dollar, adding to weekly gains. A slide of the USD further supported the pair, which was already firm on the back of a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Price is holding above 0.6700, looking to the upside but appearing overbought in the near term.
Economic data released in Australia on Thursday showed exports dropped 5% in April, after surging 4% in March, while imports rose 2% after a 4% increase in March. From a year ago, exports are up 3.2% and imports 8.5%, reflecting strong consumption. An important report due on Friday for the pair is the Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI). If the numbers continue to show inflation near 0%, expectations of some stimulus from Chinese officials may grow, supporting risk appetite.
The weekly Jobless Claims report in the US showed an unexpected jump in Initial Claims to the highest level since October 2021. The numbers softened expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve. US yields edged lower and the US Dollar tumbled across the board. The rally in AUD/USD was boosted even further by the improvement in risk sentiment.
The current bullish momentum shows the pair has more room to go. The combination of a hawkish RBA after the 25 bps surprise hike and Governor Philip Lowe's comments, coupled with a weaker US Dollar, leave the AUD/USD pair set for more gains, on road toward 0.6800, at least until the US Consumer Price Index report next Tuesday. If CPI numbers are good for the Fed (low inflation), it could be very bad for the US Dollar. The main enemy for the momentum for AUD/USD bulls is the possibility of risk-off sentiment.
AUD/USD short-term technical outlook
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After Wednesday's correction, the AUD/USD gained momentum and climbed back above the 0.6700 area and also above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). It is crucial for the bullish momentum to prevail that the pair maintains the 200-day SMA. At 0.6740, the 100-day SMA is serving as a reference for the pair's momentum. A daily close above this level would suggest that a test of 0.6800 is likely.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is moving with a clear bullish bias, with the price above the 20-SMA and in an upward channel. The next resistance stands at 0.6745 and then 0.6780. The 0.6800 level seems distant. The positive momentum for the Aussie is likely to remain intact while above 0.6660, but a slide below this level would raise questions about the sustainability of the rally.
Support levels: 0.6690 0.6635 0.6610
Resistance levels: 0.6720 0.6745 0.6770
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Author
Matías Salord
FXStreet
Matías started in financial markets in 2008, after graduating in Economics. He was trained in chart analysis and then became an educator. He also studied Journalism. He started writing analyses for specialized websites before joining FXStreet.
