AUD/USD Forecast: Mixed signals, potential for gains while above 0.6410

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6439

• Bullock replaces Lowe as the new RBA governor.
• The RBA will release the minutes of the August meeting.
• Quiet trading maintains AUD/USD within familiar range above 0.6400.

The AUD/USD reached a four-day low at 0.6416 and then rebounded, erasing losses and rising above 0.6430 on a quiet day as market participants prepare for central bank decisions.
The rebound was helped by an improvement in risk sentiment. Wall Street turned positive, boosting the pair modestly during a quiet session. The tone around the market will likely be decisive for the next hours for the pair.

Michele Bullock began her new role as Resever Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor, replacing Philip Lowe. On Tuesday, the RBA will release the minutes of its September meeting when policy makers decided to keep the key rate unchanged at 4.10% and warned that further monetary tightening may be required. The minutes will unlikely show surprises. The next meeting is scheduled for October 3, and currently, the market does not expect any changes.

In the US, housing data is due on Tuesday. However, the focus is primarily on the FOMC meeting, which will kick off on Tuesday. Market expectations indicate that the Fed will keep rates unchanged. Attention will likely be on the statement and economic projections, as they will help shape the outlook for interest rates.

AUD/USD short-term technical outlook

Over the past month, the AUD/USD has been moving sideways near the 0.6400 level within a bearish trend. The key support area has formed around 0.6350. A break below this level could potentially lead to renewed weakness in the pair. On the daily chart, the Australian Dollar is showing mild positive signs as the price is slightly above the flat 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). To improve the short-term outlook for the Australian Dollar, the pair needs to consolidate above 0.6500.

On the 4-hour chart, the bias is tilted to the upside but lacks strong conviction. Technical indicators provide no clear clues, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) flat around 50 and the Momentum moving downward slightly below the midline. The price is hovering around the 20-SMA. Immediate resistance can be found at 0.6445, and a break above that level could open the door for further gains. Near-term support may lie at 0.6420, followed by a dynamic resistance at 0.6410 represented by an uptrend line. A break below 0.6400 would negate the bullish bias.

Support levels: 0.6410 0.6390 0.6355

Resistance levels: 0.6445 0.6475 0.6505

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