AUD/USD Forecast: Buyers pushing for fresh June highs

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6376

• Mixed Chinese data underpinned the Australian Dollar in a slow start to the week.
• Australia will post updates on consumer and business confidence on Tuesday.
• AUD/USD holds on to modest gains near June high, aims to extend its advance.

The AUD/USD pair fell towards 0.6490 early in Asia, recovering the 0.6500 mark and trading at around 0.6520 ahead of Monday’s close. In the absence of local news, the Aussie benefited from Chinese data, as the country reported a wider-than-anticipated trade surplus in the year to May. The Trade Balance rose to $103.22 billion, sharply up from the $96.18 billion posted in April. Looking beyond the headline, Exports in the same period declined by 4.8%, while Imports fell by 0.2%.

China also reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.2% MoM in May, and was down by 0.1% from a year earlier. The figures hint at deflation, albeit the annual reading was better than the -0.2% anticipated. The Producer Price Index (PPI), on the downside, declined by 3.3% YoY in May, worse than the previous 2.7% and the -3.2% anticipated by market participants.

On Tuesday, Australia will report the June Westpac Consumer Confidence, and the National Australian Bank (NAB) Business Conditions and Business Confidence indexes.

In the meantime, financial markets await headlines from the United States (US)-China trade talks taking place in London. Top representatives from both countries are currently in London, discussing the next potential steps towards a trade deal. Expectations keep investors on hold and major pairs within familiar levels.

AUD/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the AUD/USD pair shows that the pair nears the peak posted last week at 0.6534, with aims to extend gains beyond it. In the mentioned time frame, technical indicators aim north well above their midlines, although with limited directional momentum. At the same time, a mildly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) advances above the 100 and 200 SMAs, supporting the upward case.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk also skews to the upside. The AUD/USD pair found intraday buyers around a bullish 20 SMA, which advances far above the longer ones. The Momentum indicator is lifeless around its 100 level, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovers at around 61, unable to provide clear directional clues.

Support levels: 0.6490 0.6455 0.6410

Resistance levels: 0.6540 0.6575 0.6610