AUD/USD Forecast: Aussie loses momentum ahead of Australian employment data
AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6338
- The Australian September jobs report is expected to increase 20,000 jobs.
- Data from the US includes Jobless Claims and Philly Fed, Chair Powell is scheduled to speak.
- The AUD/USD exhibits a bearish bias, after being rejected from above the 20-day SMA.
The AUD/USD reached a five-day high of 0.6393 but reversed course, falling to the 0.6330 area due to a stronger US Dollar. Rising tensions in the Middle East offset the optimism from positive macroeconomic data from China. The focus now shifts to Australian employment data and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Powell's speech.
Data from China showed that the economy expanded by 1.3% during the third quarter and grew by 4.9% compared to the previous year, surpassing expectations. These numbers initially boosted optimism, but the positive sentiment did not last throughout the day as geopolitical concerns weighed on market sentiment.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock stated on Wednesday that they would respond with policy measures if inflation remains higher than expected. The Australian jobs report is scheduled for release on Thursday, with market expectations of an increase of around 20,000 jobs following the previous month's gain of 64,900. This data could potentially impact the Australian Dollar, but the key focus will be on the quarterly inflation figures next week.
The weakness in the AUD/USD pair occurred as the US Dollar strengthened across the board, driven by a risk-off sentiment and higher Treasury yields. On Thursday, US data including Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed index will be released. Additionally, Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to speak at the Economic Club of New York.
AUD/USD short-term technical outlook
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The AUD/USD is heading towards the Asian session with a bearish bias after breaking a short-term trendline. The pair has been rejected from the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and has changed its course from five-day highs, indicating that it is not yet ready for a more significant recovery. It remains close to the 0.6285 area, the October lows and a crucial support.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has dropped below the 20-SMA. Technical indicators are not showing clear signs, suggesting consolidation is likely ahead, possibly between 0.6330 and 0.6350. A slide below 0.6330 would clear the way for further losses, targeting 0.6310. However, losses seem limited as long as the pair remains above 0.6285. A break below this level could trigger a bearish acceleration towards 0.6250.
On the upside, the first resistance level emerges around 0.6355. The Australian Dollar must break and hold above 0.6400 to indicate more sustainable gains.
Support levels: 0.6330 0.6310 0.6280
Resistance levels: 0.6350 0.6395 0.6434
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Author
Matías Salord
FXStreet
Matías started in financial markets in 2008, after graduating in Economics. He was trained in chart analysis and then became an educator. He also studied Journalism. He started writing analyses for specialized websites before joining FXStreet.
