OzForex Research
OzForex Foreign Exchange
AUD - Australian Dollar
The overnight session saw the AUD rise from 0.7100 to 0.7174 against its US counterpart as US equity markets rose. US equities were bolstered by stronger than expected economic data out of the US, coupled with increased hopes that US lawmakers would soon agree to a long-awaited fiscal stimulus package.
This saw positive sentiment envelop markets, supporting global equities and risky currencies such as the AUD and NZD. Despite the NZD also rising from 0.6570 to 0.6625, the AUD/NZD cross managed to rise 50 points to 1.0850.
Looking to the day ahead we can expect to a ‘pre budget address’ from Prime Minister Morrison and some second-tier data in the form the AIG PMI and CoreLogic home value index reads for September. Traders will then shift their attention to the Eurozone where the unemployment rate is expected to increase from 7.9% to 8.1% for August. The day will then be rounded out by US initial jobless claims data which is expected to remain elevated.
We see initial downside support around the 0.7110 handle before the key 0.7000 level whilst on the topside, we expect upside moves to meet initial resistance approaching 0.7230.
Key Movers
Markets fear of an uncertain election result were confirmed during the first of three presidential debates yesterday. The debate has been widely described as a ‘train wreck’, which saw the two candidates engage in a 90-minute shout-fest. Markets were firmly in ‘risk off’ territory after the debate however things turned around as a stream of positive US data releases filtered through.
As we touched on above, risky currencies benefited most as sentiment shifted, with the AUD and NZD being core beneficiaries. We also saw EUR/USD trade between 1.1687 and 1.1751 whilst the USD/JPY traded in a tight behand between 105.40 and 105.75. In commodity markets, spot iron ore rose 3.8% to touch $123.45 during trade while gold and oil futures fell modestly at 0.4% and 0.5% respectively.
Expected Ranges
AUD/USD: 0.7110 - 0.7230 ▲
AUD/EUR: 0.6050 - 0.6190 ▲
GBP/AUD: 1.7980– 1.8160 ▼
AUD/NZD: 1.0780 - 1.0850 ▲
AUD/CAD: 0.9470 - 0.9600 ▲
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