AUD/USD Elliott Wave: Hopping to the pattern’s end

Executive summary

• Trend Bias: The AUD/USD pair is rallying within a larger uptrend that began in April 2025.
• Rally Target: Near 0.7250 – 0.7370.
• Key Support: Below .6950 and the medium-term top may already be in place.

Aussie is rallying in the final stages of its impulse pattern that began April 2025. Several wave relationship targets appear between .7250 – .7370. According to the Elliott wave model we are following, once the final price is in place, AUD/USD would decline in a correction back to 0.69.

Current Elliott Wave analysis

AUD/USD is in a mature rally within wave v of (v), a terminal wave at two degrees of trend. This means the larger Elliott wave impulse pattern that began in April 2025 at .5913 is coming to end.

There are several wave relationships that appear between .7250 – .7370. Therefore, we suspect some resistance will begin to appear as Aussie tops leading to its next correction.

Here are some wave relationships so you can see them clustered together:

Wave v = i – .7250.

Wave v = .382 x i-iii – .7271.

Wave v = 1.618 x i – .7336.

Wave (v) = .382 x (i)-(iii) – .7355.

Wave v = .618 x i-iii – .7367.

As a result, look for the rally in Aussie to start getting choppy if it reaches the levels above. Once this impulse pattern from .5913 is complete, the model calls for a partial correction of the rally, then another rally of similar size or Fibonacci proportions.

There is a more bullish alternative count that we’ll activate if AUDUSD rallies with strength above .75.

Bottom line

AUD/USD appears to be in the final stages of a year long rally from 59 cents. If this analysis is correct, then a partial retracement back to .64 – .68 will effectively correct the rally, then lead to the next impulsive uptrend.

If AUD/USD declines below.6950, then we’ll need to reconsider that the medium-term top is already in place and the partial retracement lower is underway.