Darren Chu, CFA
Tradable Patterns
The AUD/USD edged roughly 50 pips higher Friday, continuing major bottoming efforts that began in February. The AUDUSD has made progress in halting a downtrend since October, closing last week near the 2023 low. Any clawing back above the September high is unlikely before Q3 but would dramatically increase the likelihood of a break of a longer term downtrend since July 2011. Catalysts for further upside may come as early as Monday with the US retail sales, Wednesday with the US Federal Funds rate, FOMC economic projections, FOMC statement and Thursday with the Australia employment change, unemployment rate and US unemployment claims. The weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are bottomish, rallying or consolidating recent gains. I am looking to enter long in the green zone (of the daily chart), targeting the red zone for Friday. The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I sometimes set my stops tighter).
Weekly/daily/4hr
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