There are 3 important things which should be pinpointed for the AUD/Aussie Dollar outlook:
Australian Jobs data missed the mark badly on ‘New Jobs’ & Unemployment.
The China Industrial Production metric released today, was negative.
Overnight commentary around trade progress was tilted negative.
A mixture of bad results from today’s Aussie jobs data release, pulled AUD/USD back under 68c.
I maintain my trade call for a Sell AUD/NZD 1.0660 playing the divergence.
Negative input hitting the AUD compared against the fresh roundof NZD buyers, spurred on by the forward guidance delivered from the RBNZ.
AUD/NZD nicely in the money and building downside momentum around 1.0630;
Gold and Risk Sentiment:
One thing that we did learn from the Fed Testimony overnight was that the US Fed is ready to cut rates again if they “materially need to”, meaning, that we aren’t out of the woods yet
The trade progress is laced with some pessimism, which seems to coincide with the trader headline that the US-China trade talks/Trade deal hit a snag overnight regarding the purchase of US agriculture goods.
China have always maintained that they want the trade tariffs walked back or removed entirely, whereas, the US have been consistently requesting that in exchange – a resumption of buying occurs for the US farm goods.
- This bounce back in Gold CLEARLY seems linked to a softer USD tone, and some worries creeping back in that perhaps aim at concerns that we are further way from the trade deal being inked, compared to what the markets assumed & priced.
Gold now $1,464, forming a possible base above $1,460, for another run up to $1,480.
Meanwhile the Hang Seng (HK50) is getting dumped faster than a grenade with the pin taken out, and that situation also hurts two things:
The overall risk sentiment (So Gold can lift on that)
The China/HK/US relations could worsen if the US push & provoke regarding China intervening on the HK turmoil (So Gold can lift on the back of that too).
- For those reasons I am cautious about Gold selling right now, and in fact, favour a BUY Gold back to $1,480 Trade play.
Recent Trades from Russell:
Hang Seng (HK50)
What to Watch for FX?
RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange and derivatives trading carry a high level of risk. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, we encourage you to consider your investment objectives, your risk tolerance and trading experience. It is possible to lose more than your initial investment, so do not invest money you cannot afford to lose。 ACY Securities Pty Ltd (ABN: 80 150 565 781 AFSL: 403863) provides general advice that does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this website must not be construed as personal advice; please seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions. The FSG and PDS are available upon request or registration. If there is any advice on this site, it is general advice only. ACY Securities Pty Ltd (“ACY AU”) is authorised and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC AFSL:403863). Registered address: Level 18, 799 Pacific Hwy, Chatswood NSW 2067. AFSL is authorised us to provide our services to Australian Residents or Businesses.