AUD/JPY traded lower yesterday, after it hit resistance fractionally above 83.00. However, the price structure remains of higher peaks and higher troughs above the short-term uptrend line taken from the low of the 26th of October and thus, we would consider the near-term outlook to be cautiously positive for now.
Even if the latest slide continues below 82.35, we would still see a decent chance for the bulls to take charge from near the aforementioned trend line. If they do so and manage to bring the rate back above 82.35, then we may see them aiming for another test at around 83.00. A break above 83.00 would confirm a forthcoming higher high and may initially aim for the 83.25 hurdle, defined by the high of the 31st of July.
Taking a look at our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI exited its above-70 territory and now looks to be heading towards 50, while the MACD, although positive, lies below its trigger line and points south as well. These indicators suggest that the current setback may continue for a while more, perhaps for a test near the short-term uptrend line.
In order to start examining the case for a short-term trend reversal to the downside, we would like to see a clear dip below 81.95. Such a move could encourage the bears to drive the battle towards the 81.30 area, the break of which could extend the slide towards 81.00.
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