AUD dips following Trade Data & RBA Decision

Stuart Cowell HFM

AUDUSD, Daily

The Aussie dollar has underperformed following the release of Australian trade numbers earlier today, where a tumble in net exports prompted economists to trim Q3 GDP forecasts by up to 0.2 percentage points. The growth data is due tomorrow and expectations are for 0.2% q/q growth, though some analysts are flagging of negative number, which would mark the first GDP contraction in five-and-a-half years. The RBA left policy unchanged at its December review today, as was widely expected, and the statement made only cosmetic tweaks to leave the main takeaway as being that “inflation is expected to remain low for some time.” AUDUSD ebbed to a low of 0.7441, about 30 pips down on Sydney opening levels.

Technically, the Moving Averages are mixed and unaligned with weakness suggested as the pair trades below the 20, 50 and 200 Simple MA’s, the Parabolic SAR and MACD remain positive, whilst the short term RSI is neutral. Resistance remains at 0.7584 (the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level from the November move down), the psychological 0.7500 and the 200 DMA at 0.7530. The consolidation is likely to persist and a SHORT entry was taken at 0.7450 with Target 1 0.7400 and Target 2 0.7300.

Author

Stuart Cowell

HFM

With over 25 years experience working for a host of globally recognized organisations in the City of London, Stuart Cowell is a passionate advocate of keeping things simple, doing what is probable and understanding how the news, c

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.