AUD/CHF trades within a range

JFD Team JFD

AUD/CHF traded higher today, and currently, it is testing yesterday’s high, at around 0.6550. Overall, the pair has been trading in a sideways manner, between 0.6490 and 0.6590, since June 16^th, and thus, we will hold a flat stance for now with regards to the short-term outlook.

In order to start examining the bullish case, we would like to see a decisive break above the upper end of the range, at 0.6590. Such a move may wake up the bulls, who could drive the battle towards the peak of June 10^th, at around 0.6660. They may decide to take a break after hitting that hurdle, thereby allowing the rate to correct lower. However, as long as it would be trading above the upper end of the range, we would see decent chances for another leg north. This time, the 0.6660 may get broken, a move that could set the stage for extensions towards the 0.6740 zone, which provided strong resistance on June 5^th and 9^th.

Taking a look at our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI stands above 50 and points up, while the MACD lies slightly above both its zero and trigger lines. Although this could be interpreted as bullish momentum, both indicators have been oscillating around their equilibrium levels since the middle of the month, which enhances our choice to remain sidelined for now.

We would start examining bearish scenarios, only if we see a decent drop below the lower boundary of the range, at 0.6490. This would confirm a forthcoming lower low and could initially allow the bears to aim for the 0.6430 zone, which is near the low of June 12^th, and is marked by the inside swing high of May 29^th. Another break, below 0.6430, could extend the slide towards the 0.6370 territory, which acted as a strong support between May 27^th and 29^th.

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