Stephen Innes
SPI Asset Management
Wednesday's inflation report dealt a significant blow to the Federal Reserve's aspirations for a soft landing as, once again, inflation outpaced expectations.
Hotter-than-expected prices force Fed officials back into a cautious stance, where they must await further clarity on inflation dynamics and tangible signs of economic deceleration before even entertaining a rate cut before Q4.
This uncertain policy period will negatively affect risk sentiment in the short term. It highlights the challenge policymakers face as they navigate the complexities of monetary policy in a constantly changing reflationary environment.
Few read the room wrong; after the CPI print the 10-year UST auction tanked as traders abandoned their earlier projections of a rate cut by June and the possibility of three cuts throughout the year.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings have once again thrown a wrench in the Federal Reserve's plans. These figures paint a picture that diverges from the year-on-year (YoY) prints returning to the Fed's target. The annual pace remained 3.8% for March, unchanged from the previous month's rate. Interestingly, on an unrounded basis, the YoY reading edged higher.
You will likely come up empty-handed if you're searching for a silver lining in this data.
SPI Asset Management provides forex, commodities, and global indices analysis, in a timely and accurate fashion on major economic trends, technical analysis, and worldwide events that impact different asset classes and investors.
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