Oil is down more than 1% from Monday's intraday highs after a relatively muffled reaction to weaker Chinese GDP growth, and the restart of the US Gulf of Mexico production which has left oil bulls looking to the API inventory report for support.
Monday's release of EIA Drilling Productivity Report which indicated US shale is still expected to continue growing, with August forecast at 8.545mb/d vs 8.27mb/d in April is keeping a lid on prices today.
Gold has had a sluggish session ahead of the US retail sales report. But a stronger USD against both the EUR and GBP have dampened whatever bullish edge the markets had today. But Fed speak should continue to be more supportive for Gold than not this week so dips will likely in demand even on a positive retail sales print.
Sterling has been under intense selling pressure after both candidates for UK Prime Minister's position toughened their stances on the Withdrawal Agreement and the Irish backstop at the final debate which suggests the Pound will remain extremely vulnerable if the no-deal Brexit continues gaining momentum.
Downward pressure on the Euro could recommence as the market turn focus the ECB who are teeing up 10 bp depo rate cut in September and December. Also, the ECB could reinforce that “all its instruments" are ready willing and able mantra which should keep the market focused on QE. In addition currency markets will likely disengage from any a 50 bp rate cut probability when we move closer to FOMC, which should temper USD weakness.
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