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Asia Update: A bit of a mishmash but overall sentiment is still in fine fettle

Markets 

China's Hubei province reports 4,823 new coronavirus cases on the second day of using a unique methodology. This should be a good thing, but since it's still possible to spin that number any way you want, depending on your bias, it could be holding investors back a touch today.
 
A bit of a mixed bag today, its Friday after all, and the market is still a little cautious about secondary cluster outbreaks over the weekend. But what's positive for risk, is the ASEAN market de-risking tone is multiple decibels lower than the feverish pitches from last Friday. The sentiment is still in fine fettle, but the traders have turned  positive mood music down a tad ahead of the weekend
 
However, I think there is light at the end of the virus tunnel. The virus impact is probably just a near term demand shock that has been mitigated by central bank liquidity. And since stocks are purely a momentum story at the moment juiced by the Fed repo remedy and the PBoC policy impulse, investors might feel they have little choice but to get on board or risk getting left at the station. 
 
Asia FX

No demand for Asia currency risk reversal this morning, and traders could be taking this as a sign to punch their blue ticket and get on board the Yuan post-coronavirus manufacturing rebound train.  Also, there's a pretty comforting policy backstop nudging the Yuan along, as lower rates and currency stability are encouraging foreign bond flows.
 
If the PBoC continues to limit RMB weakness, and with Bond market rallying, portfolio inflows should continue to remain active, especially given the ongoing bond index inclusion, such as to the GBI-EM, which will include China starting from the 28 February. This could be a bigger winner for long Yuan
 
And while probably not wise to go all-in long CNH, just yet local risk sentiment appears to be in a much better place today in comparison to last Friday while.
 
Oil update and the bigger fly in the ointment 
 
With Covid-19 fears receding, the bigger fly in the ointment is Russia as they remain a reluctant production cutter given their breakeven are much lower. Still, we've seen this all before, and at this time, there is little reason for the market to suspect Russia will break from the usual pattern of flip-flopping until the last minute but ultimately agreeing to cut.

Gold 

With risk sentiment holding up fast money flows, which has been dominating price action for late have turned better sellers in Asia this morning. And barring negative Covid-19 headline, price action could pivot below the psychological  $1575/oz  level before the Asia session is over.  

Author

Stephen Innes

Stephen Innes

SPI Asset Management

With more than 25 years of experience, Stephen has a deep-seated knowledge of G10 and Asian currency markets as well as precious metal and oil markets.

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