Asia FX Handover

Matt Simpson, CFTe, MSTA CityIndex

No change of policy from BOJ, as widely expected. Rates remain at -0.1%, will continue to target 10yr around 0%, 7-2 in favour of maintaining YCC. GDP forecast lowered for 2019/2020 and 2020/2021.
PBOC’s Vice Governor sees monetary policy as appropriate.
South Korea’s GDP contracted for the first time since the financial crisis, weighing on equities across the APAC region.
Quiet ranges for FX following USD’s dominance yesterday. USD/JPY back within range after failing to hold into a fresh 2019 high (an ominous sign ahead of the 10-day holiday?). EUR/USD treads water near 22-month lows, AUD/USD stopped 3-pips above 70c, USD/CAD back below 1.35 after BOC’s dovish meeting yesterday. US10Y stalled just above 2.5% after printing a prominent swing high last week.

Author

Matt Simpson, CFTe, MSTA

CityIndex

Matt Simpson is a certified technical analyst who combines charts and fundamentals to generate trading themes.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.