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Asia catches a chill as tariff clock ticks — Markets glance over the shoulder

Asian markets slipped into Friday like someone entering a dark alley with one eye over their shoulder—because while US equities danced higher on a sweet spotted post-payroll sugar rush, the mood in Asia was far less celebratory. The reason? That familiar, twitchy unease every time Trump gets near the tariff trigger.

The tariff threat may be technically paused, but the clock is ticking, and traders know full well that when Trump starts talking about mailing out tariff letters like jury summons—“maybe 10 a day”—the market better start pricing in shrapnel. “Reciprocal” tariffs were the euphemism du jour, but the tone was pure voltage. Friday could mark the beginning of a new round of customized cost-of-entry notices for anyone wanting to sell into the world’s largest consumer economy.

So much for TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) —the supposed soft tariff landing mechanism, the pause was always conditional, and now we’re sprinting toward the end of that grace period. The US has already inked deals with the UK and Vietnam, and declared a temporary truce with China. But for everyone else—especially Asia’s export-driven economies—the sense is that time's up, and the bill collector is knocking.

This is no longer just a negotiating tactic—it’s policy architecture. With the "Big Beautiful Bill" signed and sealed, tariffs look less like leverage and more like a revenue stream. Someone’s got to pay for those tax cuts, and it won’t be coming from domestic austerity.

The result? Asian equities pulled back as traders braced for impact. It’s not panic yet—but it’s certainly not confidence either. The US jobs print may have given Wall Street a reason to run, but in Asia, the only thing running is the clock—and it’s counting down to what could be a fresh volley in Trump’s tariff blitz.

No one wants to be holding risk when that first letter gets sent.

Author

Stephen Innes

Stephen Innes

SPI Asset Management

With more than 25 years of experience, Stephen has a deep-seated knowledge of G10 and Asian currency markets as well as precious metal and oil markets.

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