As suggested, an up day

USD: Sept '25 is Up at 98.110.  

Energies: Aug '25 Crude is Up at 63.93.

Financials: The Sep '25 30 Year T-Bond is Higher by 7 ticks and trading at 115.07.

Indices: The Sep '25 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 25 ticks Higher and trading at 6419.75.

Gold: The Aug'25 Gold contract is trading Down at 3414.50.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market.  The USD is Up and Crude is Up which is not normal, and the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Higher.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is correlated with the US dollar trading Up.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. All of Asia traded Higher.  Currently Europe is trading mainly Lower except the London exchange.

Possible challenges to traders

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Expectations - tentative.  This is Major.
• Lack of Major economic news.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT).  They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

On Friday the ZT dived Lower at around 8:30 AM EST with no real economic news pending.  The Dow climbed Higher at the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The Dow climbed Higher at around 8:30 AM EST and the ZT dived Lower at around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Short opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about a dozen ticks per contract on this trade.   Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for ZT is now Sep '25 and the Dow is now Sep '25.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of barcharts

ZT -Sep 25 - 8/08/25

Dow - Sep 2025- 8/08/25

Bias

On Friday we gave the markets an Upside bias and the markets didn't disappoint as the Dow gained 207 points, and the other indices gained ground as well.  Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market, and our bias is Neutral or Mixed.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Well, it seems President Trump is finally going to have his sit down with Russian president Putin on Friday in Alaska. I don't think our president understands how Putin will operate.  He'll yes Trump to death and may even agree to a ceasefire but deep down he wants Ukraine returned to Mother Russia as it once was.