As suggested – A mixed day

USD: Sept '25 is Up at 97.850.  

Energies: Sep '25 Crude is Up at 62.46.

Financials: The Sep '25 30 Year T-Bond is Higher by 14 ticks and trading at 114.14.

Indices: The Sep '25 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 44 ticks Lower and trading at 6460.50.

Gold: The Dec'25 Gold contract is trading Up at 3395.60.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The USD is Up and Crude is Up which is not normal, and the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lowr and Crude is trading Higher which is correlated. Gold is trading Higher which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Up.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. Asia traded Higher with the exception of the Hang Seng exchange. Currently Europe is trading Lower.

Possible challenges to traders

• NAHB Index is out at 10 AM EST.  This is Major.
• Lack of Major Economic news.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT).  They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

On Friday the ZT climbed Higher at around 8:30 AM EST with Retail Sales pending.  The Dow dived Lower at the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The Dow dived Lower at around 8:30 AM EST and the ZT Higher at around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Long opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 20 plus ticks per contract on this trade.   Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for ZT is now Sep '25 and the Dow is now Sep '25.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of barCharts

ZT -Sep 25 - 8/15/25

Dow - Sep 2025- 8/15/25

Bias

On Friday we gave the markets a Mixed bias and the markets didn't disappoint.  The Dow gained 35 points on the session but the other indices lost ground on the day.  Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market, and our bias is to the Downside.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

So, Trump had his pomp and circumstance meeting with his buddy Putin on Friday and nothing got accomplished.  No ceasefire, no agreement nothing except that there will be another meeting.  In the meantime, Russia is still attacking the Ukraine and casualties are mounting.  And this is from a country that believes the US "stole" Alaska from them and there is a segment of their population that want it back.