Apple product launch propels markets

USD: Sept '25 is Up at 97.800.  

Energies: Oct '25 Crude is Up at 63.24.

Financials: The Dec '25 30 Year T-Bond is Lower by 11 ticks and trading at 116.25.

Indices: The Sep '25 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 77 ticks Higher and trading at 6541.00.

Gold: The Dec'25 Gold contract is trading Up at 3692.20.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market.  The USD is Up and Crude is Up which is not normal, but the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Lower.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading Higher which is correlated with the US dollar trading Down.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. All of Asia traded Higher.  All of Europe is trading Higher.

Possible challenges to traders

• Core PPI is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is Major.

• PPI is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is Major.

• Final Wholesale Inventories m/m is out at 10 AM EST.  This is Major.

• Crude Oil Inventories is out at 10:30 AM EST.  This is Major.

• 10 Year Bond Auction starts at 1 PM EST.  This is Major.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT).  They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT dived Lower at around 9 AM EST with no real pending news.  The Dow climbed Higher at the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The Dow climbed Higher at around 9 AM EST and the ZT dived Lower at around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Short opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 30 plus ticks per contract on this trade.   Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for ZT is now Dec '25 and the Dow is still Sep '25.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of BarCharts

ZT -Sep 25 - 9/09/25

Dow - Sep 2025- 9/09/25

Bias

Yesterday we predicted an Upside Day, and the markets didn't disappoint.  The Dow closed Higher by 196 points and the other indices closed Higher as well.  Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market and our bias is to the Upside.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Yesterday we had Apple introducing their new product lineup which is something they usually do around this time of year.  I suppose they're getting ready for the holiday buying season, but this is always an upbeat event.   Want to learn Market Correlation and determine market direction hours before the Opening Bell?