This is not a correlated market. The dollar is Up+ and Crude is Up+ which is not normal and the 30 year Bond is trading Higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading Higher which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.

Currently Asia is trading Mixed at the present time. All of Europe is trading Higher at this time.

Possible Challenges To Traders Today

FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 8:15 AM EST. This is major.
Core Retail Sales m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
Retail Sales m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
Import Prices m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
Capacity Utilization Rate is out at 9:15 AM EST. This is major.
Industrial Production m/m is out at 9:15 AM EST. This is major.
Business Inventories m/m is out at 10 AM EST. This is not major.
NAHB Housing Market Index is out at 10 AM EST. This is major.
Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 1 PM EST. This is major.
FOMC Member Evans Speaks at 3:30 PM EST. This is major.
TIC Long-Term Purchases is out at 4 PM EST. No effect on the session.

Treasuries

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 30 year bond (ZB) and The YM futures contract. The YM contract is the DJIA and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it's liken to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZB made a major move at around 8 AM EST. The ZB hit a Low at around that time and the YM hit a High. If you look at the charts below ZB gave a signal at around 8 AM EST and the YM was moving Lower at the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. ZB hit a Low at around 8 AM and the YM was moving Lower at the same time. These charts represent the newest version of MultiCharts and I've changed the timeframe to a 15 minute chart to display better. This represented a Long opportunity on the 30 year bond, as a trader you could have netted about 10 ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $31.25. Please note: the front month for both the ZB and YM contract is now September, 2019 and I've changed the format to Renko bars such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Bias

Yesterday our bias was to the Upside and the markets kept its winning ways. The Dow rose by 27 points and the other indices gained ground as well. Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market and our bias is Neutral.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Remarkably the markets moved to a higher high once again. The Dow gained 27 points and the other indices moved higher as well. Now conventional wisdom would say that the markets should have move lower today. After all didn't the market crack all time highs on Friday. Didn't the Dow advance 244 points and the other indices as well? We take a different view. Each and every day we view the markets as we see them for that day. We make no assumptions and use Market Correlation to determine direction. Are we right 100 percent of the time? Anyone who says they are should be held as suspect. As we say each and every day "this too can change".

Author

Nick Mastrandrea

Market Tea Leaves

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.