Alphabet markets 19-year Euro debt at about 205bps over swaps

EU Mid-Market Update: US midterms tomorrow, Treasury borrowing estimates today ahead of a refunding that could cut the 20-year; OpenAI cuts its round to $20B at $1.25T; Alphabet markets 19-year euro debt at about 205bps over swaps; S&P turns negative on Meta and Fitch on France.

The brief

- Markets are rebounding from October’s last minute tech rout as Brent falls >4% to about $109 on Gulf mediation, though that looks exposed given Iran’s no-limits retaliation order and reports of possible US strikes right after Tuesday’s midterms, where Democrats are favored in both chambers. Governments are retreating from long-dated debt just as AI borrowers like Alphabet pay up to issue it, shifting buyers’ risk from sovereign to corporate credit ahead of Wednesday’s US refunding. Europe adds political and energy strain, with OAT-Bund at 165bp after Fitch’s negative outlook on France, Belgium’s government near collapse and German gas storage at just 62%.

Observations in full

-October’s tech rout ended with a heavy Friday, and Monday opens on a rebound and cheaper oil. S&P futures settled about 1.8% lower at 7,614 on Friday and Nasdaq futures about 3.5% lower at 28,534. Futures reopened +0.3-0.4% on Sunday and traded +0.5-0.9% in Asia. Brent settled at $113.10 on Friday and is down about 3% this morning even though Iran escalated its rhetoric over the weekend, after OPEC+ held December output targets for a third month. Kospi rose 2.2% to 5,859 and Shanghai 0.9%, while the Nikkei slipped 0.3%. China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 against 49.9 expected, a second month of contraction, while the private RatingDog survey held at 52.0. Taiwan raised the daily limit on exporters’ dollar selling to support the TWD against equity outflows. The Treasury 10-year is at 4.92% ahead of today’s ISM. In Europe ASML is +2%, STMicro +3% and Siemens Energy +1.5%, while oil producers lose 1-2.5%.

-Tuesday’s midterms will decide who sets the 2028 data-centre permit rules, whichever party wins the Senate. Prediction markets give Democrats 94% for the House and 71% for the Senate. Maine and Alaska use ranked-choice counts, so if either decides the 51st seat, control may stay open until about Nov 13-18. SemiAnalysis models 62.2GW of US net data-centre additions in 2028, most of it not yet under construction, with 70% in 13 states of which 10 elect a governor tomorrow. Texas has put the entire 474GW ERCOT interconnection queue under audit and halted all TCEQ data-centre permits until about mid-December. Abbott proposes to legislate guardrails and end sales-tax incentives, while his opponent Hinojosa wants a moratorium. Georgia’s utility commission could get its first Democratic majority since 2002 after approving a 10GW expansion last December, and roughly 34-41 local data-centre measures are on ballots, about 21 of them in Ohio. Every local measure decided this year so far has restricted development, and in Q1 local opposition blocked or delayed more than 75 projects worth about $130B. GPU borrowers pay interest on idle capacity while permits wait, so the governor races carry more weight for AI credit than Senate control. The Treasury refunding is due at 08:30 ET on Wednesday, with talk of cancelling the 20-year.

-Markets price a Democratic House at 94% and a Democratic Senate at 71%, and the Senate seats Democrats need most may take the longest to count. Republicans hold the House 219-210 with six vacancies and the Senate 53-47, so Democrats need net gains of 8 House seats and 4 Senate seats, with Vance breaking a 50-50 tie. Prediction markets price a Democratic sweep at 70% and a Republican sweep at 7%. Single-race prices add up to about 51.5 expected Democratic seats. If the races were independent that would put control near 76%, so the 71% price allows for a correlated polling miss of about 1.8 seats. Michigan, the weakest of the four seats Democrats are defending, fell 9 points to 67% after Haley Stevens, defeated in the August primary with backing from the Democrats’ own Senate campaign committee, endorsed Republican Rogers on Sunday. No public poll has been taken since. Losing Michigan would raise the number of Republican seats Democrats need to flip to five. Nebraska independent Osborn says he will caucus with neither party, so a 50-49-1 chamber would give him leverage over committee ratios. Texas prices the same electorate 35 points apart: Democrat Talarico is at 68% for the Senate and Hinojosa at 33% for governor. The gap reflects a discount on Republican Paxton, as Musk-linked money lifted Republican Senate spending in Texas to $121.5M in September. The first signals will likely lean Democratic. In states that report party registration, Democrats cast about 45% of early ballots against 31% for Republicans, and Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas post early votes first. Ohio closes at 19:30 ET and gives the first real Senate signal. On the 2022 pattern the first decisive flip comes in Asian hours. Ranked-choice counts in Maine (68% Democrat) and Alaska (71%) could run to about Nov 13 and Nov 18, so if either is the 51st seat, Senate control stays open through Friday’s payrolls. TTN’s historical reaction map has a strong Democratic result knocking risk lower with a small bull flattening in Treasuries, a Republican sweep as the bear-flattening tail, and a contested, slow count as the worst outcome. Banks have lagged the S&P by an average of 2.2pts in the month after the last five midterms. The lame-duck House has about 20 legislative days. A full-year continuing resolution would freeze defence at $858B against a planned path to $1.1T, and reports say Iran strikes could resume the day after the vote.

-AI borrowing costs are rising across bonds, ratings and private rounds. Alphabet is marketing a seven-tranche euro deal with guidance from +60bps over mid-swaps on the 2-year to +205-210bps on the 19-year. Its £1B 6.125% 100-year bond from February traded near 88.5, a 6.87% yield, in September, and its 2058s are more than 20bps wider than at issue. Spreads that wide on the longest tranches are high for an issuer of Alphabet’s credit quality, and they come as Alphabet’s treasurer plans to tap the dollar market twice a year after raising about $115B in debt across currencies since early 2025. S&P revised Meta’s AA- outlook to negative on Friday, citing uncertainty over capex and free operating cash flow, three days after Meta priced $37.5B of equity. The FT reports OpenAI cut its round to $20B at $1.25T, from ambitions of $30B at $1.4T, and SoftBank is -2.5% ahead of its Nov 10 results. Anthropic is reportedly seeking up to $3.5B in a Japanese share offering alongside its US IPO. Microsoft’s $25B deal last week and Lagarde’s remark that hyperscaler issuance is pushing up long-end yields globally point the same way: the long end is absorbing AI capex. Apollo launched a €10B European private-credit company backed by Abu Dhabi’s ADIC, Norinchukin and Standard Chartered.

-Iran’s leadership authorised immediate retaliation with no geographic limits ahead of a possible post-election US strike. Khamenei ordered the armed forces to respond “immediately and without geographic limits” to any threat. MS Now reported Trump could resume strikes the day after the midterms, Axios said Netanyahu is pressing him to, and Trump said Iran will either deal or “we’ll just end it”. On the diplomatic track, Araqchi called Vance’s outreach “a positive step”, while Tehran says talks depend on the US ending its naval blockade and on its own seven-step plan. China is sending envoy Zhai Jun to Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia after the Sultan of Oman’s first visit to Beijing, and Xi said the Gulf must not become a battleground for great-power rivalry. Ships are still being hit. UKMTO reported a vessel struck inside Hormuz on Nov 1, and a tanker hit by two projectiles 72nm east of Ras Al Khafji, deep inside the Gulf. Ryanair put a number on the fuel cost: unhedged jet fuel has doubled, its FY28 fuel bill is up about €2B, and it is reviewing temporary pay freezes, even with FY27 80% hedged at about $67. Traffic guidance was cut to 214M passengers.

-Wednesday’s 08:30 ET refunding could formally shorten US debt issuance, and the 20-year bond is the most likely casualty. The August statement replaced “increases” with “changes” in describing future coupon and FRN sales, which leaves room to cut sizes. Citi expects $3B cuts per auction to both the 20- and 30-year, funded with bills, and Deutsche Bank reports client talk of suspending the 20-year outright. Steven Mnuchin, who revived the 20-year in 2020, now says it should go because it is “costly to the taxpayer”. It has yielded more than both the 10- and 30-year for most of its life. October’s reopening stopped at 5.469%, about 59bps above the prior reopening, and tailed. Treasury’s buybacks are already retiring the same maturities. The liquidity buybacks have taken the maximum $6B in the 2037-2046 sector four times, and Bessent doubled long-end buybacks in August. That sector covers the 20-year’s maturities, so a cut would end a cycle of selling 20-year paper while buying it back. The dealer agenda goes further, asking about “structural demand” changes to coupon sizes and whether to hold bill and FRN auctions on FOMC days, which would mean five or six auctions in a day. Two days after the UK DMO cut long conventional gilt auctions to £2.3B, a US cut would mean the two largest sovereign issuers in English-law markets both shifting to bills in the same week. Hyperscalers are moving the other way: Alphabet is marketing 19-year euro paper at about 205bps over swaps and has a 100-year sterling bond yielding near 6.9%, and Microsoft has a $25B deal. The long-duration supply governments withdraw is being replaced by AI borrowers, so pension and insurance buyers keep their duration but take on corporate credit risk instead of sovereign. More bills raise Treasury’s sensitivity to a December Fed hike that futures price at about 80%. BNP warns a cancellation could read as a sign the toolkit is exhausted, and ING’s base case is no change. Quarterly borrowing estimates are due today at 15:00 ET.

-Washington wants Russian gas to reach Europe through Ukraine again just as German storage falls short. The WSJ reports Kushner and Witkoff are pushing to restore Russian gas sales via Ukraine as part of a winter energy ceasefire. German storage is about 62% full against a statutory 80% target before the heating season. Germany is about 18 points short of its storage mandate as the heating season starts, which strengthens the case for Ukrainian transit while TTF trades near €100/MWh. The six-day Oleshky ceasefire ended without reported violations, and Melania Trump called the mission a success. LNG supply is expanding as Venture Global reached commercial operations at Plaquemines Phase 1 with Shell lifting the first contract cargo. Mitsubishi plans to sell part of its LNG Canada stake for about ¥250B, with Blackstone leading on a reported $3.1B deal, and TotalEnergies bought 30% of two Malaysian gas fields. Russia banned some petrochemical exports outside the EAEU.

-France was moved to a negative outlook by Fitch before Tuesday’s budget vote, and Belgium’s government is close to collapse. On Friday Fitch moved France’s A+ outlook to negative, a week after Moody’s held at Aa3, and the OAT-Bund spread widened to 165bps from 154bps on Thursday with OATs at 4.97%. The National Assembly holds a solemn vote on the revenue side of the budget on Tuesday after a third weekend of protests and 565 arrests. Local press reports Belgian PM De Wever offered his resignation to the King after his five-party coalition missed a multiyear budget deal ahead of today’s Nov 3 deadline to avoid an emergency budget. In Germany more than 100,000 people marched over affordability, with looting in Frankfurt, and September retail sales fell 2.0% m/m against +0.4% expected. Meloni is proposing a 26% exit tax on capital gains for residents with assets above €800k who move abroad. Manufacturing surveys contrast with the politics: Spain’s PMI is 52.2 against 50.5, Sweden’s 60.5, Switzerland’s 56.7 and the Czech Republic’s 55.0.

-Alstom is down 30% after cutting its margin guidance to about 1%. FY margin guidance falls to about 1% from 6.5%, free cash flow to -€1.5B from positive, and H1 operating margin was -4%. Coradia Max regional-train industrialisation and homologation delays were the cause, and the board has launched a review to cut debt by about €2B by September 2027. Orders still rose to €11.0B, so the backlog is intact and the losses come from building the trains. Ibstock is -8.5% after Q3 brick sales came in 22% below expectations, a read on UK housebuilding activity. Fresenius is +2% on an exclusive WuXi Biologics deal covering up to 37 biosimilars, and Ryanair is +1.5% as Brent falls.

-Binance has paid out $3.64B since withdrawals resumed, and the cyber-attack wave hitting Asian finance continues. Net outflows are about 2.1% of assets, and Binance says it has covered 95% of the $6.3B stolen. Circle froze more than $1.1B of USDC linked to the hack, and Binance had bought $100M of Circle shares in September. Hong Kong’s SFC told investors to trade only on locally licensed platforms and plans cybersecurity circulars in November and December. JERA reported that about 110,000 emails may have leaked, Ahold Delhaize had an IT incident in refrigeration systems, and Russia’s emergency-ministry app was hit by a large cyberattack.

-Trump is using Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as campaign tools in the last days before the vote. He said the GSEs will invest $40B in Florida mortgages and $4.3B in Kansas next year, while FHFA’s inspector general found Director Pulte interfered with the office’s independence and blocked its oversight of the two firms. GSE capital is being committed to specific states at campaign rallies while the oversight body says it was blocked from reviewing them.

-Asia-Pacific central banks meet this week with inflation still rising. The RBA is expected to hike for a fifth time, to 4.85%, on Tuesday after Melbourne Institute inflation rose to 4.9%, and updated forecasts are due. BOJ hike odds fell after Ueda gave no near-term signal, with the Summary of Opinions due Nov 10 and Japanese markets closed Tuesday. Sankei reports Japan’s five-year defence budget could reach ¥80T, against about ¥43T previously. Indonesia’s October CPI came in at 3.2%.

-Cross-asset: Alphabet’s 19-year spread near 205bps, S&P’s negative outlook on Meta, OpenAI’s cut round and Anthropic’s Japan offering show the long end and private markets setting the price of AI capex. Tuesday’s governor and local ballot results will decide whether the 62.2GW of 2028 capacity gets permits. Brent’s 3% drop leaves Khamenei’s no-limits order and the post-midterm strike talk unpriced, while Russian gas through Ukraine and Germany’s storage shortfall drive TTF. Fitch’s negative outlook, Belgium’s government crisis and German riots put more political risk into euro spreads before the French vote. This week brings ISM today, the RBA, midterms and the French revenue vote Tuesday, the Treasury refunding, euro-area CPI and ADP Wednesday, the BoE and the French 10-year auction Thursday, and US payrolls Friday.

-Asia closed mixed with KOSPI outperforming +2.2%. EU indices +0.1-0.6%. US futures +0.4-0.8%. Gold +0.6%, DXY -0.3%; Commodity: Brent -4.3%, WTI -4.2%; Crypto: BTC -0.1%, ETH +0.7%.

Asia

- China Oct (Govt Official) Manufacturing PMI 49.3 v 49.9e (2nd month of contraction).

- China Oct RatingDog Manufacturing PMI: 52.0 v 52.0e (12th month of expansion).

- Australia Oct Final Manufacturing PMI: 49.6 v 49.7 prelim (confirms 2nd month of contraction).

- Japan Oct Final Manufacturing PMI: 53.3 v 53.3 prelim (confirms 10th month of expansion).

- South Korea Oct Manufacturing PMI: 51.3 v 53.9 prior (11th month of expansion).
- Taiwan Oct Manufacturing PMI: 54.9 v 56.7 prior (11th month of expansion).

- Australia Sept Building Approvals M/M: 5.1% v 2.0%e.

- South Korea Oct Trade Balance: $42.5B v $38.3Be; Exports Y/Y: 93.7% v 89.4%e; Imports Y/Y: 36.0% v %e.

- Japan Fin Min Katayama stated that was important to appropriately gauge tax revenues. PM Takaichi had said yen undervaluation was problematic.

- China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO) sold CNY541B in 1-day Overnight Reverse Repo (**Insight: Operation marked the first regular session since the PBOC unveiled the overhaul formalizing a shift away from the seven-day reverse repo rate as its main policy lever).

Global Conflict/tensions

- US Sec of State Rubio said that Trump preferred a diplomatic resolution to tensions with Iran and had not yet decided whether to use military force.

- Iran Foreign Min Araqchi stated that Tehran had studied US VP Vance's message and discussed it at a high level; US effort to open a broader dialogue with Tehran was a positive step.

- Trump said to have had a frank call with Israel PM Netanyahu about next move in Iran war; Netanyahu pressing Trump to strike Iran immediately after the midterm elections on Tuesday.

- Iran Supreme Leader Khamenei: have ordered armed forces to respond immediately and without "geographic limits to any enemy threat".

- China Foreign Ministry: Special envoy Zhai Jun to visit Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia in early-mid November.

Europe

- Fitch revised France outlook to Negative from Stable; Affirms A+ sovereign rating.

- Italy PM Meloni said to be proposing a new 26% exit tax on capital gains for individuals with assets exceeding €800K who move their tax residence abroad in its 2027 Draft Budget.

- Germany said to be entering the winter with gas storage levels significantly below target (**Note: gas storage facilities are about 62% full, well behind a statutory requirement to fill them to 80% before the heating season.

Americas

- President Trump said the US and Canada were close to reaching a new trade agreement.

- US Mid-term elections on Tues (Nov 3rd).

Energy

- OPEC+ reaffirmed to maintain output targets for the 3rd straight month, following the completion of the phased rollback of the 1.65M bpd voluntary cuts from 2023, as expected, commencing in December, 2026.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [FTSE +0.06% at 10,736.59, DAX +0.22% at 25,873.72, CAC-40 +0.32% at 7,995.29, IBEX-35 +0.90% at 18,821.04, FTSE MIB +0.34% at 49,667.50, SMI -0.29% at 14,768.30, S&P 500 Futures +0.50%].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equities open modestly firmer, with the DAX up 0.2%, the CAC 40 up 0.3%, the IBEX 35 up 0.9% and the FTSE 100 flat, as Brent retreats about 3% to $109.70 after a 13.6% October surge on weekend diplomacy and unchanged OPEC+ output targets, even as Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz tanker strikes keep a risk premium embedded in prompt curves. Alstom is the session’s outlier, plunging about 30% after cutting FY adjusted EBIT-margin guidance to roughly 1%, forecasting a €1.5B free-cash-flow outflow and launching a €2B deleveraging review, while Ibstock drops 8.5% on Q3 clay and brick sales about 22% below expectations and Heidelberger Druckmaschinen falls 3% on lower margin guidance; on the upside, Redcare Pharmacy gains 4.5% on 18% Q3 revenue growth, AIXTRON adds 3% as Q3 order growth of 122% is revisited, and STMicroelectronics rises 3% in a broader rebound of AI and semiconductor hardware after Friday’s chip rout. The oil retreat splits the tape, lifting TUI (+2.5%), Lufthansa and Ryanair (+1.5%) while pressuring Equinor (-2.5%), BP (-2%) and Shell (-1.5%), and Fitch’s late-Friday move to cut France’s sovereign outlook to negative on weaker growth, rising borrowing costs and a widening deficit keeps the OAT-Bund spread historically wide and clouds Paris financials. Apple’s reclaiming of the largest market-cap crown from Nvidia, as desks scrutinize AI capex and cash-burn timelines, sets up John Ternus’s first call as CEO, while euro-area final PMIs, German retail sales and ECB speakers Vujcic, Escriva and Moulin will shape pricing for a possible December 25 bps hike.

Equities

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY: Forvia [FRVIA.FR] +1.5% (Q3 sales reached €5.08bn, 2026 targets were confirmed and the Apollo Interiors sale cleared regulatory approvals, supporting more than €1bn of net-debt reduction), TUI [TUI1.DE] +2.5%, Lufthansa [LHA.DE] +1.0% (Brent falls about 3%, easing fuel-cost pressure after weekend diplomacy and unchanged OPEC+ output targets), Ryanair [RYA.IE] +1.5% (Q2 earnings, cut outlook and might freeze pay, cut other costs to offset high fuel prices; Brent falls about 3%).

HEALTHCARE: Redcare Pharmacy [RDC.DE] +4.5% (extends post-Q3 gains into today’s investor meetings after revenue rose 18%, German prescription sales 56% and adjusted EBITDA margin widened 1pp to 3.4%), Fresenius [FRE.DE] +2.0% (exclusive WuXi Biologics deal adds options on up to 37 biosimilars, potentially expanding the portfolio to 66 molecules from 29; 2026 guidance unchanged).

TECHNOLOGY: AIXTRON [AIXA.DE] +3.0% (rebounds as investors revisit Q3 order growth of 122%, driven by AI data-centre optical demand, after Friday’s chip rout), STMicroelectronics [STMPA.FR] +3.0%, AT&S [ATS.AT] +2.5%, LPKF [LPK.DE] +2.5%, ASML [ASML.NL] +2.0%, Siemens Energy [ENR.DE] +1.5% (European AI, semiconductor and data-centre hardware rebounds alongside firmer Nasdaq futures following Friday’s sector rout), Capgemini [CAP.FR] +1.0% (Berenberg raised its price target to €130 from €112).

ENERGY: Equinor [EQNR.NO] -2.5%, BP [BP.UK] -2.0%, Shell [SHEL.UK] -1.5%, TotalEnergies [TTE.FR] -1.0% (Brent falls about 3%; the oil-price retreat outweighs TotalEnergies’ Malaysian gas acquisition and BP’s Castrol debt-reduction update), Subsea 7 [SUBC.NO] -0.5% (oil-sector weakness outweighs a new $150m–$300m offshore Norway contract from Aker BP for the Lyra field).

INDUSTRIALS / DEFENCE: OHB [OHB.DE] +2.5% (extends its space-security and defence rerating after recent Astroscale cooperation and MediaMobil investment, with nine-month results due November 12), Alstom [ALO.FR] -30.0% (cut FY adjusted EBIT-margin guidance to about 1% and forecast a €1.5bn free-cash-flow outflow after H1 margin fell to around -4%; board launched a €2bn deleveraging review), Ibstock [IBST.UK] -8.5% (Q3 clay and brick sales were about 22% below expectations; FY adjusted EBITDA is now expected in the mid-£40m range with H2 materially below the prior view), Heidelberger Druckmaschinen [HDD.DE] -3.0% (extends losses after cutting 2026/27 adjusted EBITDA-margin guidance to 5.6–6.6% amid adverse product mix, project delays and cost pressure).

MATERIALS: Endeavour Mining [EDV.UK] -0.5% (suspended underground operations at Mana after ramp subsidence restricted access to mining portals; no injuries were reported).

Speakers

- ECB's Kazimir (acting Slovakia member) noted that the risks of doing too little were harder to ignore; Markets might still underestimate what's needed. Last week pause in rates was not a finish line. Inflation was picking up again, shock not fading.

- Iran Foreign Ministry's Baghaei noted that the basis of diplomacy with US was Iran's 7-step proposal. Chance of its implementation existed over the coming days. Exchange of messages between US and Iran continued. Vance letter offers no new basis and Iran demands remained unchanged.

- China Foreign Min Wang Yi met with Iran National Security officer in Beijing on Monday. Noted that dialogue and negotiations were the way to resolve Mid-east conflict. China supported Iran in safeguarding its sovereignty and security.

Currencies

- USD was on softer footing as the week began with focus on the upcoming US mid-term elections. Dealers noted that the likely outcome would shift the balance of power in Congress and control over the federal purse strings as Democrats were widely predicted to win the House of Representatives. US jobs data on Fri likely to have dealers gauge the likely timing and pace of future interest-rate rises based on evidence regarding the strength of the US economy.

- EUR/USD back above the 1.12 after testing recent 18-month lows last week. Upward revisions in various EU PMI manufacturing aided sentiment.

- GBP/USD at 1.3450 area ahead of Thurs BOE rate decision where the grey lady was expected to embark on tightening to help contain a pickup in inflation. Key focus is whether the Bank Rate would be likely to reach the level that is priced in by financial markets *8Reminder: BOE chief economist Pill last month said he was "skeptical" of those expectations.

- USD/JPY at 157.65. Japan Fin Min Katayama reiterates stance that government would take action against disruptive actions and that the Joint FX statement with the US is still in effect.

- The 10-year German Bund yield last at 3.15%, France 10-year Oat at 4.92% and 10-year Gilt yield at 5.23%; 10-year Treasury yield: 4.91%; 10-year JGB: 2.76%.

Economic data

- (SE) Sweden SEB Swedish Housing-Price Indicator: 38 v 43 prior.

- (RU) Russia Oct Manufacturing PMI: 49.9 v 49.8 prior (3rd month of contraction).

- (NL) Netherlands Oct Manufacturing PMI: 55.0 v 55.6e (17th month of expansion).

- (DE) Germany Sept Retail Sales M/M: -2.3% v +0.4%e; Y/Y: -2.0% v +0.2%e.

- (TR) Turkey Oct Manufacturing PMI: 47.3 v 47.9 prior (31st month of contraction).

- (SE) Sweden Oct Manufacturing PMI: 60.5 v 58.5 prior (27th straight expansion).

- (TH) Thailand Oct Business Sentiment Index: 45.2 v 48.1 prior.

- (CH) Swiss Sept Real Retail Sales Y/Y: 1.6% v 3.9% prior.

- (PL) Poland Oct Manufacturing PMI: 50.0 v 49.5e (avoided a 19th month of contraction).

- (HU) Hungary Oct Manufacturing PMI: 53.1 v 52.8e (9th month of expansion).

- (ES) Spain Oct Manufacturing PMI: 52.2 v 50.5e (2nd month of expansion).

- (CH) Swiss Oct Manufacturing PMI: 56.7 v 55.4e (8th straight expansion); Services PMI: 59.9 v 59.8 prior (10th straight expansion).

- (CZ) Czech Oct Manufacturing PMI: 55.0 v 53.0e (8th straight expansion).

- (IT) Italy Oct Manufacturing PMI: 49.4 v 49.9e (moved back into contraction).

- (FR) France Oct Final Manufacturing PMI: 49.5 v 49.3 prelim (confirmed 1st contraction in 3 months).

- (DE) Germany Oct Final Manufacturing PMI: 54.2 v 54.2 prelim (confirmed 8th month of expansion).

- (EU) Euro Zone Oct Final Manufacturing PMI: 52.7 v 52.4 prelim (confirmed 8th month of expansion).

- (CH) Swiss Weekly Total Sight Deposits (CHF): 460.2B v 455.8B prior; Domestic Sight Deposits: 436.9B v 434.7B prior.

- (GR) Greece Oct Manufacturing PMI: 53.3 v 54.0 prior (44th month of expansion).

- (ZA) South Africa Oct Manufacturing PMI: 49.6 v 48.7 prior (5th month of contraction).

- (UK) Oct Final Manufacturing PMI: 52.8 v 52.8 prelim (confirmed 12th straight expansion).

**Fixed Income Issuance:

- (RO) Romania to sell EUR-denominated 4-year, 8-year and 12-year notes via syndicate.

- (NO) Norway sold NOK2.0B vs. NOK2.0B indicated in 6-month Bills.

Looking ahead

- (RO) Romania Oct International Reserves (RON): No est v 72.3B prior.

- (AR) Argentina Oct Government Tax Revenue: No est v 21.359T prior.

- (ZA) South Africa Oct Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: No est v 12.7% prior.

- (IT) Italy Oct Budget Balance: No est v -€27.0B prior.

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell combined €6.0B in 3-month and 9-month BuBills;.

- 05:30 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell €2.0-4.0B in 3-month and 6-month bills.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Sept Industrial Production M/M: No est v -2.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v -3.8% prior.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Sept Retail Sales M/M: No est v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.7% prior.

- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell bonds.

- 06:30 (CL) Chile Sept Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: No est v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: 0.0%e v -1.0% prior.

- 07:00 (DE) ECB’s Nagel (Germany).

- 07:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays).

- 08:00 (SG) Singapore Oct Purchasing Managers Index: No est v 51.7 prior; Electronics Sector Index: No est v 52.9 prior.

- 08:00 (CZ) Czech Oct Budget Balance (CZK): No est v -194.5B prior.

- (ZA) South Africa Oct Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: No est v 12.7% prior.

- 09:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell 5.8-7.4€B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

- 09:30 (CA) Canada Oct Manufacturing PMI: No est v 51.5 prior.

- 09:45 (US) Oct Final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 56.0e v 56.0 prelim.

- 10:00 (US) Oct ISM Manufacturing: 54.6e v 54.5 prior.

- 10:00 (US) Sept Construction Spending M/M: 0.3%e v 0.9% prior.

- 10:00 (ES) ECB’s ECB's Escriva (Spain).

- 11:00 (EU) Radev (Bulgaria).

- 11:15 (US) Fed’s Goolsbee.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 13-Week and 26-Week Bills.

- 12:00 (IT) Italy Oct New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v 9.9% prior.

- 13:00 (MX) Mexico Oct IMEF Manufacturing Index: No est v 50.0 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index: No est v 49.2 prior.

- 16:00 (US) Weekly Crop Progress Report.

- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Sept Building Permits M/M: No est v 5.6% prior.

- 18:00 (KR) South Korea Oct CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.8%e v 2.9% prior; CPI (ex-food/energy) Y/Y: 2.7%e v 2.8% prior.

- 18:30 (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 67.9 prior.

- 19:01 (IE) Ireland Oct Consumer Confidence: No estv 61.1 prior.

- 19:30 (PH) Philippines Oct Manufacturing PMI: No est v 49.6 prior.

- 21:05 (VN) Vietnam Oct CPI Y/Y: 5.3%e v 5.1% prior.

- 21:05 (VN) Vietnam Oct Trade Balance: $1.0Be v $1.3B prior; Exports Y/Y: 41.1%e v 39.1% prior; Imports Y/Y: 47.3%e v 45.8% prior.

- 21:05 (VN) Vietnam Oct Industrial Production Y/Y: No est v 16.7% prior.

- 21:05 (VN) Vietnam Oct Retail Sales Y/Y: No est v 14.1% prior.

- 21:35 (CN) China to sell 1-month and 3-month bills.

- 22:30 (AU) Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise Cash Rate Target by 25bps to 4.85%.

- 22:30 (AU) RBA Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP) (aka Quarterly forecasts).

- 23:00 (SG) MAS to sell 4-week and 12-week Bills.

- 23:30 (AU) RBA Goc Bullock post rate decision press conference.