All rise except Dow

USD: Sept '25 is Up at 97.970.  

Energies: Oct '25 Crude is Down at 63.13.

Financials: The Dec '25 30 Year T-Bond is Lower by 7 ticks and trading at 117.15.

Indices: The Sep '25 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 48 ticks Higher and trading at 6551.75.

Gold: The Dec'25 Gold contract is trading Down at 3659.10.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market.  The USD is Up and Crude is Down which is normal, but the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Lower.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Lower which is correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is correlated with the US dollar trading Up.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. Asia traded Mixed.  Currently all of Europe is trading Higher.

Possible challenges to traders

• Core CPI is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is Major.
• CPI is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is Major.
• CPI y/y is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is Major.
• Unemployment Claims is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is Major.
• Natural Gas Storage is out at 10:30 AM EST.  This is Major.
• 30 Year Bond Auction starts at 1 PM EST.  This is Major.
• Federal Budget Balance is out at 2 PM EST.  This is Major.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT).  They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT climbed Higher at around 8:30 AM EST with PPI data pending.  The Dow dived Lower at the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The Dow dived Lower at around 8:30 AM EST and the ZT climbed Higher at around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Long opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 30 plus ticks per contract on this trade.   Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for ZT is now Dec '25 and the Dow is still Sep '25.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of barcharts

ZT -Sep 25 - 9/10/25

Dow - Sep 2025- 9/10/25

Bias

Yesterday we predicted an Upside Day, and with the exception of the Dow, the markets didn't disappoint. The Dow dived Lower by 220 points however the other indices closed Higher. Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market, and our bias is to the Upside.

Could this change? Of Course.  Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Yesterday was pretty much an uneventful day as far as markets go. Unfortunately, the one event that occurred had nothing to do with the markets. Sadly, Charlie Kirk was assassinated while hosting an event at a college in Utah.