After the new trade spat, what’s next for global economy?
Market movers ahead
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In the trade dispute between China and US, we expect markets to look for signs of negotiations restarting.
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In the US, the preliminary PMI for May is likely to be affected by the weak global backdrop.
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In the euro area, the PMI is likely to show a small uptick from the current low level, while the German ifo number may already reflect the trade uncertainty.
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In the UK, the EU elections could inflict a heavy defeat on the conservative party and increase pressure on Prime Minister Theresa May to resign.
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In Japan, we estimate Japanese GDP fell 0.4% q/q in Q1.
Weekly wrap-up
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The trade spat between the US and China has calmed down a bit and markets are looking for a potential new meeting to be set up.
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Prime Minister Theresa May plans to attempt to get her Brexit deal through in the week beginning Monday 3 June.
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In Germany, Q1 GDP growth rebounded to 0.4% q/q, after narrowly avoiding a recession in H2 18.
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Risk sentiment has been fragile this week following the escalation of the trade war.
Author
Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Research is part of Danske Bank Markets and operate as Danske Bank's research department. The department monitors financial markets and economic trends of relevance to Danske Bank Markets and its clients.
