A Trade War Armistice?

Wells Fargo Research Team Wells Fargo

U.S. Review

A Trade War Armistice? Don’t Make it a Holiday Yet

Optimism soared this week on hopes of a forthcoming trade deal, as equity markets hit all-time highs and the yield curve steepened.
Due to the lack of concrete details, we are sticking to our assumption that the 15% tariffs on $156 billion of consumer goods imports will go into effect on December 15, but recognize there is some upside potential to growth and rates if a deal is reached.
Regardless, the economy has shown signs of stabilizing. The ISM non-manufacturing survey beat expectations this week by climbing to 54.7 from a three-year low of 52.6 last month.

Global Review

Central Banks Still Center Stage This Week

Central banks were back in focus this week, starting with Australia. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its official Cash Rate steady at 0.75% and reiterated that it was prepared to ease policy further if needed.
Elsewhere, the Bank of England opted to keep its Bank Rate at 0.75%, but two BoE members unexpectedly voted to cut interest rates.
Canada’s labor market added fewer jobs than expected in October; however, the unemployment rate remained at a near-record low. Even with the slight drop in October, the Canadian labor market is still performing relatively well.

Download the full report

Author

Wells Fargo Research Team

Wells Fargo

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.