A pop from ETF buying

Good for stocks

Some of the commodity stocks did pause yesterday because there were rumblings of a ceasefire. But no one really trusts the Russians at this moment so, the commodity stocks are roaring back today.

We had a shockingly good consumer confidence report with the present situations component rising to 153 in March. We also have a fairly good ADP payroll report today, which is a good sign. Expectations are now high for Friday’s payroll report. It looks like the US economy is still creating jobs, but we are slowing down.

Relief in September

So the question is, can we avoid a recession like Europe?

Europe is definitely in a recession right now and the stagflation environment we're in is going to persist for a while but will eventually drop off. I think the first sign that it may be dropping off will be in September when worldwide energy demand starts to drop. It's a September, October, November phenomenon because there are more people in the Northern hemisphere than in the Southern hemisphere. We are in peak season and that's why prices are so firm and rising so fast.

The only thing that is really surprising to me is I was expecting earnings to decelerate. The market is still in a washing machine. It still oscillates.

ETF pop

If you were a bond investor, you lost a tremendous amount of money as interest rates take off. When the yield curve does invert as it did early in the week, it's actually good for the stock market because the bond investors have to go somewhere. If they don't go to the intermediate bond yields which were higher than the longer-term bond yields, they can and do look to the stock market.

The window dressing that occurs at the end of a quarter is largely over for now.  There might be a pop from ETF buying however. The ETFs that rebalance every 90 days have yet to rebalance, and when they do volumes will spike.  

Coffee beans

As of March 29, roughly four million people living in Ukraine have left the country to seek shelter from Russian aggression, either permanently or temporarily. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates that 12 million people in Ukraine and four million refugees from the country will need relief and protection over the coming months.