This is not a correlated market. The USD is Up and Crude is Up which is not normal, but the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Lower. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lower and Crude is trading Higher which is correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is correlated with the US dollar trading Up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. Asia traded Lower except the Shanghai and Singapore exchanges. Currently all of Europe is trading Lower except the German Dax.

Possible challenges to traders

Challenger Job Cuts y/y is out at 7:30 AM EST. This is Major.
Unemployment Claims is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is Major.
Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is Major.
Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is Major.
Trade Balance is out at 8:30 AM EST This is Major.
Final Wholesale Inventories m/m is out at 10 AM EST This is Major.
Natural Gas Storage is out at 10:30 AM EST This is Major.
Consumer Credit m/m is out at 3 PM EST This is Major.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT). They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract. The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT dived Lower at around 8:30 AM EST with no real news items pending at that time. The Dow climbed Higher at around the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT dived Lower at around 8:30 AM EST and the Dow climbed Higher at around the same time. These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better. This represented a Short opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about a dozen plus ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $6.25. Please note: the front month for the ZT and YM are both Mar '26. I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of BarCharts

ZT -Mar 26 - 1/07/26

Dow - Mar 2026- 1/07/26

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a Neutral or Mixed bias and the markets didn't disappoint as the Dow dropped 466 points, the S&P lost ground, but the Nasdaq gained. All-in-all a Neutral or Mixed day as suggested. Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market, and our bias will remain Neutral or Mixed.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

It looks as though the markets went sideways or Lower yesterday. Today we have more in the way of economic news, so perhaps that may have a bearing on market direction today. Want to learn Market Correlation and determine market direction hours before the Opening Bell?

Author

Nick Mastrandrea

Market Tea Leaves

EUR/USD stays weak near 1.1650 ahead of critical US events

EUR/USD stays in the red near 1.1650 in the European trading hours on Friday. The pair remains undermined by broad US Dollar strength and a cautious market mood. Traders keenly await the US Nonfarm Payrolls data and Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariff powers for further direction.

GBP/USD holds lower ground below 1.3450, with eyes on US data

GBP/USD remains subdued for the fourth consecutive day, while trading below 1.3450 in the European session on Friday. Markets remain in a wait-and-see mode before the key US event risks and prefer to hold the US Dollar, which weighs negatively on the pair. The US monthly jobs data and the Supreme Court decision on tariffs are awaited.

Gold flat lines around $4,475; looks to US NFP report for fresh impetus

Gold reverses a modest intraday dip to the $4,453 area, and trades near the top end of its daily range heading into the European session. The upside, however, seems limited as traders might opt to wait for the US Nonfarm Payrolls report later today. The crucial employment details will be looked upon for more cues about the Federal Reserve's rate-cut path.

Nonfarm Payrolls expected to show US labor market remained weak in December

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Nonfarm Payrolls data for December on Friday at 13:30 GMT. Economists expect Nonfarm Payrolls to rise by 60,000 in December following the 64,000 increase recorded in November.

2026 economic outlook: Clear skies but don’t unfasten your seatbelts yet

Most years fade into the background as soon as a new one starts. Not 2025: a year of epochal shifts, in which the macroeconomy was the dog that did not bark. What to expect in 2026? The shocks of 2025 will not be undone, but neither will they be repeated.

Pepe Price Forecast: PEPE risks 100-day EMA fallout as bullish interest fades

Pepe is under extreme selling pressure, trading in the red for the fifth consecutive day, down 1% at press time on Friday. Pepe’s decline following a 72% hike last week suggests a likely profit-booking phase, while on-chain data indicates declining network activity.