CEE: 2Q25 GDP data across the region
On the radar
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Net wages grew by 9.0% y/y in Romania, while industry contracted by -0.8% y/y in June.
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Polish 2Q25 GDP landed at 3.4% y/y (0.8% q/q). At 10 AM CET final inflation in July will be released.
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Flash 2Q25 in Romania was below market expectations at 0.3% y/y sustaining the pace from 1Q25.
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In Slovakia, economy expanded at 0.4% y/y slowing from 0.9% y/y in 1Q25.
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Poland posted a surplus on trade and current accounts (EUR 59 million and EUR 651 million respectively).
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Today, at 10.30 AM CET Slovenia will release flash 2Q25 GDP data.
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At 11 AM CET Croatia publishes final inflation number for July.
Economic developments
Today, we provide summary of flash estimates of 2Q25. We are still missing Slovenia (due 10.30 AM CET today and Croatia that is scheduled at the end of the month only). In short, so far, performance of Czechia and Poland is solid, while in other countries we see more signs of economic weakness. Going into details, the Czech economy expanded by 0.2 q/q and 2.4% y/y. Although the pace of quarterly growth decelerated significantly from the 0.7% recorded in Q1 (due to the decline of export stockpiling), the first half of the year was overall strong. Poland is also on track of solid growth with economy growing above 3% in the first half of the year (3.4% y/y in 2Q25 after 3.2% y/y growth in 1Q25). Hungary delivered a mild upside surprise, with GDP rising by 0.4% q/q but only 0.1% y/y. Serbia’s performance disappointed again in 2Q25 as economic growth was “only” at 2% y/y. Romania’s growth dynamics was below expectations as well with year-on-year growth at 0.3% i.e. the same growth dynamics as in 1Q25. In q/q terms economy expanded 1.2%. In Slovakia growth disappointed, slowing to 0.4% y/y in 2Q25 from 0.9% y/y. Growth dynamics was below market expectations.
Market developments
The FX and the bond markets have been relatively stable this week despite shifting expectations for monetary policy outlook in the US in response to July’s inflation developments. In Poland, we heard some news about new taxes planned by the Ministry of Finance on banking sector (more information to be released within weeks) and digital sector (so called digital tax) as Poland high budget deficit will require some consolidation measures to be undertaken. More changes in the tax system are also planned in Romania that proceeds with austerity measures.
Author
Erste Bank Research Team
Erste Bank
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