CEE: 2Q25 GDP data across the region

Erste Bank Research Team Erste Bank

On the radar

Net wages grew by 9.0% y/y in Romania, while industry contracted by -0.8% y/y in June.
Polish 2Q25 GDP landed at 3.4% y/y (0.8% q/q). At 10 AM CET final inflation in July will be released.
Flash 2Q25 in Romania was below market expectations at 0.3% y/y sustaining the pace from 1Q25.
In Slovakia, economy expanded at 0.4% y/y slowing from 0.9% y/y in 1Q25.
Poland posted a surplus on trade and current accounts (EUR 59 million and EUR 651 million respectively).
Today, at 10.30 AM CET Slovenia will release flash 2Q25 GDP data.
At 11 AM CET Croatia publishes final inflation number for July.

Economic developments

Today, we provide summary of flash estimates of 2Q25. We are still missing Slovenia (due 10.30 AM CET today and Croatia that is scheduled at the end of the month only). In short, so far, performance of Czechia and Poland is solid, while in other countries we see more signs of economic weakness. Going into details, the Czech economy expanded by 0.2 q/q and 2.4% y/y. Although the pace of quarterly growth decelerated significantly from the 0.7% recorded in Q1 (due to the decline of export stockpiling), the first half of the year was overall strong. Poland is also on track of solid growth with economy growing above 3% in the first half of the year (3.4% y/y in 2Q25 after 3.2% y/y growth in 1Q25). Hungary delivered a mild upside surprise, with GDP rising by 0.4% q/q but only 0.1% y/y. Serbia’s performance disappointed again in 2Q25 as economic growth was “only” at 2% y/y. Romania’s growth dynamics was below expectations as well with year-on-year growth at 0.3% i.e. the same growth dynamics as in 1Q25. In q/q terms economy expanded 1.2%. In Slovakia growth disappointed, slowing to 0.4% y/y in 2Q25 from 0.9% y/y. Growth dynamics was below market expectations.

Market developments

The FX and the bond markets have been relatively stable this week despite shifting expectations for monetary policy outlook in the US in response to July’s inflation developments. In Poland, we heard some news about new taxes planned by the Ministry of Finance on banking sector (more information to be released within weeks) and digital sector (so called digital tax) as Poland high budget deficit will require some consolidation measures to be undertaken. More changes in the tax system are also planned in Romania that proceeds with austerity measures.

Download The Full CEE Macro Daily

Author

Erste Bank Research Team

Erste Bank

At Erste Group we greatly value transparency. Our Investor Relations team strives to provide comprehensive information with frequent updates to ensure that the details on these pages are always current.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.