2020 Elections: Where the race stands in four critical states, traders on the edge of their seats

  • Biden holds onto leads in Arizona and Nevada.
  • Trump's advantage is narrowing in Pennsylvania and Georgia.
  • The president has made unsubstantiated claims about fraud.
  • Markets see a delayed outcome rather than a contested one. 

The US Presidential Elections have yet to be decided – but there are greater chances that the outcome is only a matter of time, and that a constitutional crisis is averted. The count is down to four states, and Democratic candidate Joe Biden is in pole position to replace President Donald Trump in the White House. So far, Biden won 253 electoral college votes and 270 are needed to clinch the presidency.

Nevada: Biden's lead has widened in the latest count, and most of the remaining votes are from Clark County, home to Las Vegas, which is leaning toward the Democrats. The state awards six electoral college votes. Updates are due late in the day. 

Arizona: Trump has narrowed the gap against Biden but that may be insufficient to win the Grand Canyon State – which Fox News have already called for Biden. Updates from Maricopa county, home to Phoenix, are awaited. The state awards 11 electoral college votes.

If the count were stopped as Trump demands, Biden's leads in both western states would bring the Democrat to 270 EVs needed to win.

Georgia: Trump's lead in the Peach State has narrowed to only 665 votes, with the remaining ones coming from Democratic-leaning counties. Biden may win the state, that could go see a recount. The most recent data dump has come from Clayton county, which went 87% to Biden. It has yet to report additional votes there .

The recent updates put Senator John Perdue at just under 50% – potentially triggering a runoff that could change the composition of the upper chamber. Georgia awards 16 electoral college votes.

Pennsylvania: The northern state grants 20 electoral votes, meaning that it can bring Biden over the top on its own. Trump leads by fewer than 20,000 votes and the remaining votes come from Philadelphia and other Democratic-leaning areas. 

Markets want a decisive outcome, not a contested one. While the trend in the recount tends toward a clear Biden victory, it is essential to note political developments. The president has made unsubstantiated claims of fraud, raising political tensions. While prominent Senator Lindsey Graham backed Trump, most are silent and a handful has denounced him. 

The safe-haven dollar may extend its falls if the picture becomes clearer for Biden, and it could gain if the elections become contested. 

The elections have overshadowed the all-important Federal Reserve's rate decision and Non-Farm Payrolls, yet these event still impact markets.


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