This cycle hits a high in mid-August.
Addition of 1, 4, and 10-Year Cycles in 2017
This is a year ending in a 7, and the composite below is the average performance in all years ending in 7 from 1887. The cycle peaked in mid-July.
Histogram of Monthly Expected Return in 2017: All Years Ending in 7
Histogram of Monthly Expected Return in 2017: All Post-Election Years
Histogram of Monthly Expected Return in 2017: All Years Ending in 7 that Have Also Been Post-Election Years
August Histograms
The histograms below show the average behavior of the DJIA from 1885 to 2016 in several different formats for the current month. The graph below shows the expected return (the probability of the market rising times the percent change).
Average Daily Expected Return of DJIA (1886-2016)
Average Daily Expected Return of DJIA in a Post-Election Election Year (1886-2016)
This is an excerpt from the monthly Cycles Research Early Warning Service, a monthly e-mail report that analyzes the trends in the US stock market, the bond market, and the gold market. There are stock and ETF recommendations and high-probability S&P turning points.
Cycles Research Early Warning Service has been ranked the top stock market timing service for 2016 by Timer Digest, an independent rating service in Ct., USA.
Cycles Research Investments, LLC does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of this report, nor is any liability assumed for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon such information. The information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice and are for general information only. The data used for this report is from sources deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed for accuracy. Past performance is not a guide or guarantee of future performance. The information contained in this report may not be published, broadcast, re-written, or otherwise distributed without prior written consent.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.