XAG/USD Price Forecast: Parallel channel keeps bias bullish, but momentum fades

Silver (XAG/USD) is hovering around 36.20 during the American session on Tuesday, trading in a narrow range as bulls take a breather after the sharp rally that saw the metal hit multi-year highs in June. Price action has turned sideways since then, reflecting a consolidation phase amid cooling momentum and easing geopolitical tensions.

While the broader uptrend remains intact, the lack of follow-through buying above $36.50 suggests the metal may need a fresh catalyst to resume its climb. Notably, the presence of longer lower shadow wicks near the $35.50 zone in recent sessions suggests that buyers are actively defending this support, reinforcing its technical significance.

From a technical perspective, Silver is trading within a parallel channel that has guided price action since early April, reflecting a well-defined bullish trend with higher highs and higher lows. The price is currently hovering near the midline of the channel, with immediate near-term support seen around $35.50, which also coincides with the lower boundary of the parallel channel.

The 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $35.79 aligns closely with the channel floor, which continues to offer dynamic support, helping to maintain the short-term bullish structure. A break below the channel’s lower boundary, near $35.50, would suggest a shift in market tone and expose the next support at $34.50.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 57, signaling modest bullish momentum without strong conviction, although it lacks significant upward momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has confirmed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line now trending below the signal line. This crossover signals a clear loss of upside momentum, adding weight to the ongoing consolidation in Silver prices. While the MACD remains in positive territory for now, the crossover, combined with the narrowing histogram, reflects growing downside risk.

Looking ahead, bulls need to reclaim ground above $36.50 to confirm renewed strength and pave the way for a move toward the $37.00–$37.50 area. On the downside, a close below $35.50 would risk a deeper pullback toward $34.50 and possibly $33.50.