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WTI tumbles below the 200-DMA on recession worries, Iran’s nuclear deal progress

  • WTI prices fall due to weak China-US economic data.
  • China’s Industrial Production and Retail Sales increased less than expected.
  • The PBoC reacted and cut interest rates as the bank aims to help reach the 2022 5% GDP target.
  • Iran’s nuclear deal could be resolved soon, so oil prices slid.

US crude oil benchmark, also known as WTI (West Texas Intermediate) drops for the second consecutive day on disappointing US and China data, reigniting recession fears worldwide, with traders moving toward safe-haven assets. On Monday, WTI shed 4.37% from its price, closing below its opening price at $87.85. However, as the Asian Pacific session begins, WTI is trading at $88.18 PB, edging up by 0.57%.

In the early Monday session, China’s economic docket reported Industrial Production and Retail Sales, each at 3.8% YoY and 2.7% YoY, respectively, missing forecasts. That said, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) surprised the markets, slashing its 1-year MLF to 2.75%, a consequence of the previously mentioned.

During the New York session, the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index for August tumbled to -31.3, lower than estimates, as shipments and new orders plunged.

Meanwhile, the latest developments in the Iran nuclear deal weighed on lower crude oil prices. Sources cited by the semi-official Iranian Students’ New Agency said that Tehran’s stance had been sent to the EU top commissioner Josep Borrell.

Iran Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian commented that an agreement with Washington could be reached to restore the accord “if the US shows a realistic approach and flexibility,” as reported by Bloomberg. Amirabdollahian said that they’re ready to enter the phase of announcing the deal “if our latest points are met” and said that if the US is trying to “gain concession, then we’ll have to talk and negotiate more.”

If Iran’s nuclear deal is approved, oil from Iran would be seen as a relief from high energy prices, particularly consumers, which had been dealing with skyrocketing petrol and gasoline prices, with countries like the US battling inflation at 4-decade highs.

WTI Key Technical Levels

WTI US OIL

Overview
Today last price88.18
Today Daily Change-3.54
Today Daily Change %-3.87
Today daily open91.36
 
Trends
Daily SMA2094.01
Daily SMA50101.96
Daily SMA100103.78
Daily SMA20094.45
 
Levels
Previous Daily High94.14
Previous Daily Low90.64
Previous Weekly High94.32
Previous Weekly Low86.64
Previous Monthly High109.54
Previous Monthly Low88.34
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%91.97
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%92.8
Daily Pivot Point S189.95
Daily Pivot Point S288.54
Daily Pivot Point S386.45
Daily Pivot Point R193.45
Daily Pivot Point R295.55
Daily Pivot Point R396.96

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

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