WTI closes +0.31% in the green on Friday on supply concerns

  • The price of West Texas Intermediate crude prices hold around a 50 retracement.
  • Bulls are capped by a cluster of the 50 and 200 daily moving averages.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude was in recovery for the week, ending the New York session on Friday 0.33% higher, although trading well off the highs for the week which was above $57.40. Spot ended around 58.85 having travelled up fro a low of $54.27 to a high of $55.64.

For September delivery, the futures rose 40 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $54.87, but well below the $55.67 highs for the session on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Despite trade war and global growth concerns, the price of oil made a weekly gain due to supply uncertainties linked to the Middle East production. 

"A relief rally in risk assets could also help to alleviate some downside pressure in crude prices following a tumultuous week. OPEC's monthly report noted the slowing economic growth is leading to a "somewhat bearish" outlook despite a tightening market, with oil demand from Asian economies (ex-China) still posting significantly weaker growth. Meanwhile, China's apparent demand continues to trend above its historical average, which is helping to balance the global market,"

analysts at TD Securities argued.

"At the same time, reports that Petrochina has halted direct purchases of Venezuelan crude could well add pressure to what remains of Venezuelan exports, which have remained resilient in the aftermath of the US sanctions campaign. In this context, we continue to see an elevated likelihood that CTAs will turn buyers on WTI crude, which could provide additional support to prices."

WTI levels

Technically, the cluster of the 50 and 200 daily moving averages that have a confluence with the 38.2% Fibo' kept a lid on recoveries mid-week and the price struggled to get through the 20 daily moving average on Friday. The prices fell back below the 50% retracement of the 2019 lows to April swing highs. Bears can target a drop to the 52 handle and the 61.8% Fibo at 51.70 on the wide. On the upside, if the bulls manage a break of said confluence resistance, then there is space for a recovery to the 58 handle to meet trend line resistance. 

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