Why the USD is able to diverge from interest rate differentials? - Nomura

Sandeep Kanihama FXStreet Contributor

The dollar has continued to weaken as dollar crosses were egged lower by comments from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin that a weak dollar is positive for US trade, but structural forces remain very much in play, in view of analysts at Nomura.

Key Quotes

“There has been a noteworthy breakdown between the FX and rates relationship in recent months .We think there are five factors that explain the divergence: (1) USD has already rallied too much for a Fed hiking cycle; (2) starting a tightening phase matters more than mid-way hikes; (3) the US trade deficit is a problem; (4) Euro is winning the capital flow battle; and (5) CNY policy.”

Author

Sandeep Kanihama

FXStreet Contributor

Sandeep Kanihama is an FX Editor and Analyst with FXstreet having principally focus area on Asia and European markets with commodity, currency and equities coverage. He is stationed in the Indian capital city of Delhi.

EUR/USD treads water near 1.1800 ahead of ECB rate decision

EUR/USD is keeping its range at around 1.1800 in the European trading hours on Thursday. The pair awaits the European Central Bank interest rate decision for fresh impetus after the Eurozone inflation declined well below the central bank's 2% target.

GBP/USD stays weak toward 1.3600 on BoE's 'Super Thursday'

GBP/USD holds its losses for the second successive session, directed toward 1.3600 in European trading on Thursday. The pair weakens as the Pound Sterling comes under pressure ahead of the Bank of England’s interest rate decision due later in the day.

Gold recovers major part of intraday losses to sub-$4,800 levels; down a little on firmer USD

Gold rebounds swiftly following the Asian session fall to sub-$4,800 levels and climbs back above the $4,900 mark in the last hour, though the upside potential seems limited. Wednesday's softer US ADP report pointed to labor market weakness and strengthened the case for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, lending support to the non-yielding yellow metal.

BTC steadies as bears shift focus toward $70,000

Bitcoin price remains under pressure so far this week, with the Crypto King slipping below $73,000 on Tuesday for the first time since November 2024. The price dip in BTC was fueled as the news came in late Tuesday that the US military shot down an Iranian drone that “aggressively” approached the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea.

BoE expected to keep interest rate steady amid sticky inflation, cooling job market

The Bank of England (BoE) will deliver its first monetary policy decision of 2026 on Thursday. Most analysts think the ‘Old Lady’ will sit tight, keeping the base rate at 3.75% after the cut delivered back on December 18. Alongside the decision, the bank will also release the Minutes, which should shed a bit more light on how policymakers weighed the arguments around the table.

Top Crypto Losers: Zcash, Stacks, BNB drop further as Bitcoin weakens

Zcash, Stacks, and BNB (formerly Binance Coin) are among the biggest losers over the last 24 hours as Bitcoin approaches $72,000. The correction is driven by multiple factors, including massive, steady outflows from institutions and large-wallet investors, broader-market risk-off sentiment, and the delay in the Digital Asset Clarity Act.