German ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment unexpectedly dropped to 38.5 in November

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

German ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment surprisingly dropped to 38.5 in November. Economists expected the sentiment data to have improved to 40.0 from 39.3 in October.

The ZEW Survey - Current Situation improved to -78.7 from -80 in October, but missed estimates of -77.5.

In the Eurozone, the ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment improved to 25.0 in November, exceeding estimates of 23.5 and the previous release of 22.7.

Market reaction

EUR/USD trades marginally higher around 1.1565 at the press time.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.00%	0.42%	0.19%	0.13%	0.30%	0.08%	-0.19%
EUR	0.00%		0.43%	0.18%	0.14%	0.31%	0.09%	-0.19%
GBP	-0.42%	-0.43%		-0.22%	-0.29%	-0.14%	-0.34%	-0.61%
JPY	-0.19%	-0.18%	0.22%		-0.07%	0.11%	-0.12%	-0.38%
CAD	-0.13%	-0.14%	0.29%	0.07%		0.18%	-0.05%	-0.32%
AUD	-0.30%	-0.31%	0.14%	-0.11%	-0.18%		-0.22%	-0.53%
NZD	-0.08%	-0.09%	0.34%	0.12%	0.05%	0.22%		-0.27%
CHF	0.19%	0.19%	0.61%	0.38%	0.32%	0.53%	0.27%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

This section was published at 08:04 GMT as a preview of the German ZEW Survey data.

German ZEW Survey Overview

The Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) will release its German Economic Sentiment Index and the Current Situation Index at 10:00 GMT later on Tuesday.

ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment Index for Germany is expected to improve to 40.0 in November, from 39.3 that came in October. Meanwhile, the Current Situation Sub-Index is expected to improve to -77.5 in the reported month, up from the previous reading of -80.0.

ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment in Eurozone is expected to rise to 23.5 in November, from 22.7 previously.

How could the German ZEW Survey affect EUR/USD?

The EUR/USD pair may limit its downside if German ZEW Survey data come as expected. Traders will likely observe the upcoming German inflation data, including Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for October, to gain further impetus on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy outlook.

The Euro (EUR) could further receive support against its peers amid a prevailing cautious tone surrounding the European Central Bank (ECB) policy outlook. Traders anticipate the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged for now, backed by steady economic performance and inflation near target. Money markets see only a 40% chance of a rate cut by September 2026.

The EUR/USD pair remained weaker as the US Dollar (USD) gained ground amid growing hopes that the US government shutdown resolution is nearing. The US Senate passed a funding bill in a 60–40 vote, effectively ending the 41-day shutdown, with eight Democrats joining Republicans to advance the measure, which now moves to the House for approval.

Technically, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1560 at the time of writing. The bearish bias prevails as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 level and prompts the pair to test the immediate support at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.1554. On the upside, the primary resistance lies at the psychological level of 1.1600, followed by the 50-day EMA of 1.1622.

Economic Indicator

ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment

The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).

GBP/USD keeps the firm tone above 1.3600

GBP/USD clings to its daily gains, although it gives back some of them and recedes toward the 1.3630-1.3620 band on Thursday. Cable’s uptick comes despite the modest bounce in the Greenback, while investors gear up for key data releases on the UK calendar on Friday.

EUR/USD treads water near 1.1670

EUR/USD gives away all its initial gains and receded to the sub-1.1700 region. The US Dollar’s late recovery has dragged the pair lower, leaving it practically unchanged following the NA session on Thursday. In the meantime, investors gear up for the release of preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs on both sides of the Atlantic on Friday.

Gold trims losses, back above $4,500

Gold manages to regain some composure and reclaim the area beyond the key $4,500 mark per troy ounce on Thursday. The yellow metal’s daily decline comes amid the humble improvement in the US Dollar while US Treasury yields remain on the rise following Wednesday’s marked retracement across the curve.

XRP extends rally as bullish technical signals underpin breakout attempt

Ripple holds in bullish hands, as price action extends above $1.16 at the time of writing on Thursday. Since Monday, the cross-border remittance token has surged by more than 20%, reflecting a steady growth in risk-on sentiment. The broader crypto market sentiment is on an upward roll at 62 in the Greed territory on Thursday, up from 46 the previous day, according to the Fear & Greed Index.

Why long bonds have repriced the cost of money

The 30-year Treasury is 12 basis points below its highest level since before the financial crisis. Not its highest since 2023, or since the tightening cycle, but since June 12, 2007, the last time the longest bond in the world's deepest market yielded what it yields on Thursday. Getting there took two attempts and most of the year.

$20 billion offered, $2 billion taken: Why Treasury doubled its buyback cap

The US Treasury moved off its own calendar on Wednesday, and that is the part worth sitting with. At 12:32 GMT, the department said it would at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors, lifting the maximum from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and running to November 4.