Eurozone flash headline HICP rises by 2.2%, faster than 2.1% in October

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

Annual Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in the Eurozone, as measured by changes in the prices of a representative basket of goods and services in the European Monetary Union, rises by 2.2%, faster than estimates and the prior release of 2.1%. On month, the headline HICP deflated by 0.3%.

Eurozone's annual core HICP - which excludes volatile components like food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco - grows steadily by 2.4%, slower tahn expectations of 2.5%. Month-on-month core HICP deflated by 0.5%.

Market reaction

The initial reaction from the EUR/USD pair is negative after the release of the Eurozone preliminary HICP data for November. Since the opening, the major currency pair trades calmly around 1.1600.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.03%	0.11%	0.34%	0.06%	-0.07%	0.20%	-0.04%
EUR	-0.03%		0.09%	0.33%	0.03%	-0.11%	0.17%	-0.07%
GBP	-0.11%	-0.09%		0.23%	-0.06%	-0.21%	0.09%	-0.16%
JPY	-0.34%	-0.33%	-0.23%		-0.29%	-0.42%	-0.16%	-0.39%
CAD	-0.06%	-0.03%	0.06%	0.29%		-0.13%	0.14%	-0.10%
AUD	0.07%	0.11%	0.21%	0.42%	0.13%		0.28%	0.03%
NZD	-0.20%	-0.17%	-0.09%	0.16%	-0.14%	-0.28%		-0.24%
CHF	0.04%	0.07%	0.16%	0.39%	0.10%	-0.03%	0.24%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

This section was published at 07:45 GMT as a preview of the Eurozone flash HICP data for November

The Eurozone Prelim HICP Overview

Eurostat will publish the flash version of the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for November later this Tuesday, at 10:00 GMT. The preliminary report is expected to show that the headline Eurozone HICP rose by the 2.1% YoY rate during the reported month, while the core gauge edged higher to 2.5% from the 2.4% in October. On a monthly basis, Eurozone inflation and the core HICP stood at 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, in October.

How could the Eurozone Prelim HICP affect EUR/USD?

Inflation figures released on Monday show no immediate threat of price increases in the biggest Eurozone economies – France, Spain, and Italy. However, German inflation figures came in unexpectedly high, reinforcing the argument for a policy hold by the European Central Bank (ECB). Hence, stronger inflation figures could boost the shared currency and assist the EUR/USD pair to capitalize on an over one-week-old uptrend.

In contrast, the immediate market reaction to a softer print is more likely to be muted amid a bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD), which should continue to act as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair. Furthermore, the divergent ECB-Federal Reserve (Fed) policy expectations suggest that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside.

Technical Analysis

The 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) slopes lower, underscoring a muted broader trend, and price remains beneath it, keeping the near-term bias defensive. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stands above the signal line in positive territory, with the histogram edging higher, suggesting improving momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55 is neutral-to-firm. The 100-day SMA at 1.1644 caps the upside for now, and a failure to clear it would preserve downward pressure.

Below the 100-day SMA, sellers retain the upper hand, and rebounds would stall against dynamic resistance, while a decisive close above that gauge could unlock further gains and shift the bias higher. The MACD’s positive tone reinforces buyer interest, and the RSI around 55 indicates balanced conditions with scope to extend if price reclaims the average.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) measures changes in the prices of a representative basket of goods and services in the European Monetary Union. The HICP, released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, is harmonized because the same methodology is used across all member states and their contribution is weighted. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

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