ECB monetary policy decision overview
The European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision later today at 1245 GMT and will be followed by the usual post-meeting press conference at 1330 GMT. The central bank is widely expected to maintain status quo and leave its forward guidance intact that rates will remain at their current levels until after this summer.
However, Nick Kounis, head of financial markets research at ABN AMRO, suggests that the ECB is expected to downgrade its expectations for economic growth, change its guidance to signal policy rates will remain on hold this year and extend its TLTRO program at its upcoming meet today.
How could it affect EUR/USD?
Against the backdrop of deteriorating macroeconomic data since the September meeting, a more dovish shift during the press conference and prompt some fresh weakness around the shared currency.
Ahead of the key event risk, Yohay Elam - FXStreet's own Analyst offers some important technical levels for trading the EUR/USD pair: “The pair is battling 1.1355 which was a support line in recent days. The fresh low of 1.1340 follows closely. 1.1310 was the low point in early January. 1.1270 was a double bottom in December.”
“1.1395 capped the pair early in the day. 1.1410 was a stubborn cap last week. It is followed by 1.1450 that provided support in mid-January. 1.1490 was a peak around that time,” he added further.
Key Notes:
• ECB Preview: With lower growth ahead, chances of a rate hike in 2019 are all gone
• EUR/USD Forecast: Pressured by PMIs, fearing Draghi's drag
• EUR/USD: Focus on ECB, dovish talk likely priced in
About the ECB interest rate decision
ECB Interest Rate Decision is announced by the European Central Bank. Usually, if the ECB is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the EUR. Likewise, if the ECB has a dovish view on the European economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.
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